The chatter surrounding the second round of the NBA playoffs has focused on the Knicks-76ers and Spurs-Timberwolves series.
Both matchups have a ton of intrigue, but the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons deserve a little more attention.
Both teams played a grueling seven-game series in Round 1 before they met in the Eastern Conference semis, and Detroit took Game 1 with a convincing rally in the final five minutes to close the deal.
This series will be determined by how good each supporting cast can be, but that assumes the stars show up. For Detroit, that’s Cade Cunningham, and for Cleveland, that’s Donovan Mitchell.
Cunningham has been a scoring machine so far in the postseason with 250 points in the playoffs, including a playoff career-high 45 points in a shootout with Paolo Banchero in Game 5 of Round 1.
Entering Wednesday’s games, Cunningham has 49 more points in the playoffs than the next closest player, and Mitchell is slightly lower on the list at 185 points.
Mitchell has typically been a playoff riser — his career average in the regular season is 25.1 points, but that goes up to 27.7 in the playoffs — but his numbers are down this season.
He chalked that up to the lack of free throws.
“I’m just not getting the calls. I don’t know why. I don’t flop, maybe that’s why,” Mitchell said after Game 1 against the Pistons. “And this isn’t just a tonight thing. This has been the entire series, and it’s frustrating a little bit, because I’m such a dynamic driver, right? But I can’t control that. So if they’re not going to call it for me, I got to find a way to finish through that.”
Mitchell was careful to say that he didn’t think that was the reason the Cavs lost, but he is taking nearly four fewer free throw attempts these playoffs compared to the regular season.
So, where’s the bet here? DraftKings has a prop for which player will have the highest scoring game in the series. Cunningham is -175 and is the leading scorer in the playoffs, so that makes sense.
Mitchell has +160 odds and I think there’s a great chance he could end up being the better option.
Mitchell and Cunningham both tied with 23 points in Game 1, but Cunningham shot 6-of-19 from the floor. That’s not an outlier. Cunningham has three games in the playoffs, shooting below 40 percent.
More importantly, Mitchell is the better 3-point shooter between the two and can get hot from deep.
To Cunningham’s credit, he’s been hitting his 3s so far, but those numbers will regress, and Mitchell is primed for a huge game soon.
As far as the lack of free throws, I expect Mitchell to start making a concerted effort to drive to the basket and draw contact after his comments. He was among the 10 best scorers on drives during the regular season, and he has the athleticism to finish over bigger players.
If Mitchell and Cunningham get into a scoring battle, Mitchell has more than enough firepower to win it.
The Play: Donovan Mitchell to have the highest-scoring game in the series (+160, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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