Geopolitical tensions are an unavoidable part of the World Cup, and they’ll add an extra layer of intrigue to Monday’s otherwise unremarkable matchup between New Zealand and Iran.
Ignoring the off-field storylines, this is a massive tilt for both of these teams. Placed in Group G with Belgium and Egypt, there are multiple paths to the knockout stage for either one of these sides.
The Belgians will obviously be tough to beat out, but finishing as runner-up is well within reach for both New Zealand and Iran, plus they will also fancy their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages by being one of the eight best third-place finishers.
So while this isn’t a must-win match for either side, it is a must-not-lose, as defeat would seriously hinder their chances of getting out of the group stage.
It’s really hard to come up with many similarities between Iran and New Zealand as nations, but on the field, these two teams have a lot in common, including steadily rising in the ranks over the last decade.
Neither is close to a world power in the sport, but they’ve established themselves as two of the best teams in Asia and Oceania.
Stylistically, there’s not much guesswork to do here. Both Iran and New Zealand are comfortable playing without the ball, and they’re not going to be confused with Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona when they are in possession.
There are some technically gifted players on both rosters, but they know their best path to success is through direct play, crosses, and set pieces. Neither New Zealand nor Iran has a problem with scoring ugly goals.
For the All Whites, that means getting the ball to Chris Wood.
The face of soccer in New Zealand, Wood has made a name for himself in the Premier League over the last decade and is best known for his aerial ability. A towering presence and an incredibly smart player, Wood is a chore to deal with, and the Kiwis have no issue just lumping the ball into him all night long.
Iran won’t take a drastically different approach. Wood is in a class of his own as a target man in this tilt, but the Persian Lions have their own aerial goal-scoring threat with Mehdi Taremi, once of Inter Milan.
Weirdly, this match has the feel of a college football game featuring two teams that run the triple-option. They will be familiar with what the opponent wants to do, because they will be trying to do the same thing. That will turn this into something akin to a field-position battle.
The atmosphere for this match, which is taking place at SoFi Stadium, will be charged, and there will be a lot of folks tuning in because of the current state of affairs between Iran and the United States, but the soccer on display will likely be far from thrilling.
The draw (+245, FanDuel) is a great option for this match, and you could do a lot worse than getting +750 on the game to be scoreless.
The Play: Draw (+245, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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