A cursory look at the latest WNBA MVP odds tells two interesting stories.
The first is that there is an amazing depth of talent across multiple eras of players.
The second is that the public can easily be baited into betting on popularity over other important factors.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | +225 |
| Caitlin Clark | +250 |
| Breanna Stewart | +750 |
| Napheesa Collier | +900 |
| Paige Bueckers | 16/1 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 20/1 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 22/1 |
| Kelsey Plum | 25/1 |
| Allisha Gray | 30/1 |
| Rhyne Howard | 40/1 |
| All others | 50/1 or longer |
On the talent front, there is the MVP favorite A’ja Wilson, the back-to-back MVP with four trophies on her mantle owning +225 odds to win her fifth, which would put her two ahead of any other player in W history.
Two-time MVP Breanna Stewart isn’t far behind at +750 odds to win MVP. She took home the honors in 2023 during the Liberty’s first Finals run with their current core.
Then, the popularity factor comes into play.
Caitlin Clark, the most popular and often most polarizing player in the league, is +250 to win MVP this season.
She missed most of her sophomore campaign, but did finish fourth in MVP voting during her rookie season, when she was also named an All-Star, first team All-WNBA and Rookie of the Year.
That hasn’t stopped bettors from flocking to her here. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, Clark has received 29.5 percent of the MVP betting tickets ahead of the start of the season.
It’s a similar story for Paige Bueckers entering her second season.
Bueckers was the Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, and made second team All-WNBA last season. She is getting 24.6 percent of betting tickets and 85 percent of the handle.
Everyone loves betting on something new and fresh, but history doesn’t support the idea that either of those players would surge to be the MVP this season.
Setting aside the fact that those players would need to play at the level Wilson has been playing for the past few seasons, team performance is a huge factor.
Going back to 2018, the MVP has been on one of the top two teams in their conference.
The Fever finished third last season behind the Liberty and Dream, two teams that have gotten better this season. The Wings tied for the worst record in the league last season and need to make a quantum leap this season to challenge the Aces.
One player who does stand out on this list is Allisha Gray.
She finished fourth in MVP voting last season and the Dream were at the top of the East last season. She’s a two-way player, another big factor for recent winners, and her team improved in the offseason by adding Angel Reese.
Gray is 30/1 despite having a profile that puts her much closer to the level of Wilson and Stewart.
I’ll gladly sprinkle a bet on her at those odds, but I also like Wilson at plus-money odds.
The Picks: A’ja Wilson (+225, BetMGM) | Allisha Gray (30/1 BetMGM) to win WNBA MVP
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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