Los Angeles may soon discover that viral politics is not the same thing as political success.

For months, Spencer Pratt’s mayoral run has been treated by much of the political establishment as a sideshow. The former reality television personality has flooded social media with highly produced viral videos featuring Batman themes, musical parodies, and celebrity-style editing. It is Internet-first messaging that looks nothing like a traditional municipal campaign.

And yet, as of a week out from the June 2 primary, Pratt may actually finish second and advance to a November runoff against Mayor Karen Bass.

That may sound improbable. But the numbers are starting to add up.

The key to understanding the LA mayoral race is recognizing that Pratt does not need to beat Bass in June. He only needs to beat socialist Councilwoman Nithya Raman.

That is a dramatically easier assignment.

Bass still appears headed for first place. The real battle is for second. And suddenly, Pratt has a lane.

An Emerson College poll that came out of the field about two weeks ago has Bass at just 30% — far below the threshold she needs to avoid a runoff.

Pratt sits at 22%, having more than doubled his support since March. Raman trails at 19. The sample size was small, and the results should be read accordingly — but Emerson is a reliable outfit.

Meanwhile, the two challengers are competing for the same finite pool of anti-Bass attention — but from opposite ideological directions.

Raman entered the race hoping to become the left-wing insurgent candidate. Instead, she now appears trapped in the worst possible political position: too progressive for moderates, but increasingly unable to consolidate the activist left.

Even more damaging for Raman, parts of the progressive coalition itself are beginning to fracture back toward Bass. Several left-leaning City Council members aligned with the activist wing of Los Angeles politics have endorsed Bass instead of Raman — a major warning sign for a candidate whose entire strategy depends on consolidating anti-establishment progressives. Once even portions of the activist left drift back toward Bass, Raman’s path narrows quickly.

The city’s major unions have already endorsed Bass. That makes the strategic question more interesting, not less.

If Bass can still get to 50 percent, labor’s job is simple: help her end the race in June. But if she cannot, then the next-best outcome for the Bass coalition is obvious: Make sure her November opponent is Pratt, not Raman.

Because Bass versus Raman could become an expensive ideological civil war inside the Democratic coalition. Bass versus Pratt would be far simpler.

A Pratt runoff would allow labor unions and Democratic institutions to consolidate nearly the entire anti-Republican vote while portraying the election as a battle against a conservative-aligned outsider fueled by Internet celebrity culture.

That may explain why some recent labor-funded attacks on Pratt have looked curiously ineffective — or even politically beneficial to him.

Traditional attack ads only work if they damage the target’s coalition. In Pratt’s case, some attacks may actually reinforce his outsider brand and increase his appeal among frustrated voters who already distrust establishment politics.

Pratt, meanwhile, is operating under a completely different campaign model.

He is running what amounts to a perpetual viral-content machine.

And unlike many consultants and political reporters who still underestimate digital politics, Pratt seems to understand something important: Modern campaigns are increasingly attention contests before they become turnout contests.

His videos are not merely circulating among political insiders. They are generating millions of views online.

That matters because in a low-turnout municipal race, a fired-up niche can outpunch a passive majority.

LA is not just frustrated. It is visibly deteriorating. City Hall is staring at a massive budget deficit. Fire recovery has been a disaster. Hollywood production is fleeing. Street repairs feel theoretical. Homelessness continues to run amok. And with the World Cup and Olympics approaching, many residents wonder whether the city is remotely ready for the global spotlight.

Outsiders start looking a lot more viable.

The problem for Pratt is that viral popularity and electoral viability are not identical.

Millions of video views do not automatically translate into absentee ballots in LA municipal elections. Internet enthusiasm is often loud, geographically scattered, and politically shallow.

Can Spencer Pratt convert viral spectacle into actual turnout? That is the central unanswered question of this race.

If the answer is yes, LA politics is about to become much stranger.

And if Karen Bass cannot clear 50% in June, voters may soon be treated to five more months of the weirdest mayoral runoff LA has ever seen.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.