Could this finally be the end of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga?
ESPN reported on Monday that the Milwaukee Bucks are taking calls on their two-time MVP after keeping him through the trade deadline despite heavy speculation.
Antetokounmpo, who is entering the second year of a three-year, $174.5 million deal, becomes eligible for a contract extension in October.
Owner Wes Edens has made it clear the franchise plans to either extend Antetokounmpo or move him, while co-owner Jimmy Haslam has pointed to the NBA Draft as the ideal deadline for clarity.
If Giannis doesn’t indicate he’s open to an extension in the coming weeks, a trade would be inevitable.
As of this writing, Kalshi is favoring the Bucks to retain Antetokounmpo or that he will retire from the NBA. Antetokounmpo, 31, has stated he plans to finish his professional basketball career back in his home nation of Greece at some point in his 30s.
For the Bucks, the question remains as to whether GM Jon Horst can accomplish building another championship roster in Antetokounmpo’s prime. The Bucks, who finished in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, hold the No. 10 pick in the NBA Draft on June 23.
The Portland Trail Blazers are the next most likely to land Antetokounmpo with a 21 percent chance. Portland controls several of Milwaukee’s future draft picks from the Damian Lillard trade, giving the Bucks a rare path to reclaim their own draft capital.
New owner Tom Dundon has also made it clear he wants to compete aggressively, and the Blazers can offer a mix of young talent — like Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan — alongside valuable picks.
| Team | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bucks or retires from NBA | 29% |
| Trail Blazers | 21% |
| Magic | 20% |
| Celtics | 13% |
| Heat | 14% |
| Warriors | 7% |
| Nets | 6% |
| Cavaliers | 6% |
| Timberwolves | 5% |
| Knicks | 5% |
| Mavericks | 4% |
But the biggest question is whether Portland would risk going all-in for Giannis without a long-term commitment, though connections to former Bucks teammates Lillard and Jrue Holiday could help sell him on staying.
The Orlando Magic fall next with a projection of 10 percent. Their best capital would be in sending Paolo Banchero to Milwaukee, which could benefit both sides in giving the Bucks a younger franchise star while helping Orlando address roster fit and future salary-cap concerns.
Still, the idea feels far-fetched because it depends on Antetokounmpo committing long term to the Magic after their playoff collapse, and there are legitimate questions about whether he’d actually fit better alongside Franz Wagner than Banchero does.
The Celtics, who have a 13 percent shot at Antetokounmpo, make sense considering Antetokounmpo wants to play for an Eastern Conference contender, and the Celtics aren’t going anywhere.
Boston President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens emphasized the team’s need for more rim pressure and paint scoring this offseason. The Celtics have the financial flexibility to make a major trade, along with several tradable first-round picks, but any realistic offer would likely require giving up either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.
The Celtics would have to decide whether risking their long-standing core is worth it without assurances that Antetokounmpo would sign a long-term extension.
The Miami Heat, listed with a 14-percent chance, has long been viewed as a potential destination for Antetokounmpo thanks to the franchise’s star appeal, organizational stability, and history of landing marquee players.
The Heat reportedly discussed a package built around Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, and draft assets at the trade deadline. Team president Pat Riley has already hinted that major roster changes could be coming after another disappointing season, where the Heat were bounced out of the play-in round.
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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