The Sabres are walking the plank at the Bell Centre on Saturday, and it’s safe to expect another heavy dosage of high-octane hockey.
Montreal’s 6-3 victory in Game 5 wasn’t pretty by any means. The Canadiens fell down 3-2 in the first period with Buffalo having buried three of its first four shots on Montreal goaltender Jakub Dobes.
Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis resisted the urge to yank Dobes, who has played all 11 postseason games. That turned out to be the right decision: Dobes’ critical save on Tage Thompson early in the second period proved to be what St. Louis hailed as the game’s turning point.
From there, the Habs neutralized the Sabres’ momentum and scored three unanswered goals to take a 5-3 lead into the dressing room.
Dobes stopped the remaining 32 shots he faced, improving his Goals Saved Above Expected in these playoffs to 8.1 — third-best amongst goaltenders.
Battling back after a shaky start on the road was the toughest test the 24-year-old netminder has faced to date in these playoffs. He’s done all you can ask of a young goalie in his debut playoff campaign, including the bonus of staring down a future Hall-of-Fame goalie in Andrei Vasilevsky in the first round.
While Buffalo scrambles to figure out their goaltending situation to save their season, Dobes and the Canadiens are pegged as hefty -160 favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Montreal has proved it’s a tough son of a gun to beat twice in a row, improving to 5-0 following a loss in these playoffs. With the momentum of a home crowd and an edge in high-danger scoring chances, I’m skittish to fade the Habs for value in a wonky series.
On the other hand, the Sabres are just as capable of responding.
They are 4-1 on the road this postseason and remain the better ranking team in both expected goals and shot attempt differential at five-on-five in these playoffs.
I’m expecting the Sabres to throw the kitchen sink at Dobes. Their shot generation doesn’t come from just one line: Jason Zucker, Josh Doan, and Konsta Helenius all scored in the first period of Game 5, while the Zach Benson-Josh Norris-Josh Doan line dominated play at five-on-five.
With Montreal’s top line getting buried territorially by Buffalo’s Norris matchup to the tune of a 29-12 shot-attempt advantage for the Sabres on Thursday, Buffalo proved it can consistently create looks on net even while losing.
The Sabres have averaged a top-five mark of 29.9 shots on goal in the playoffs, so volume isn’t a concern. When those pucks do get to Dobes, he’ll answer the bell as he carries a high-danger save percentage of 92.7 percent in this series.
His save prop Over/Under is set at 24.5 — a line he’s cleared in three games through this series and seven of 11 in the playoffs.
St. Louis’ confidence in Dobes has been rewarded so far, and ours will be too in a major career moment for the stoic netminder.
THE PLAY: Jakub Dobes Over 24.5 Saves (-112, FanDuel)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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