Handicapping a golf tournament is akin to solving a riddle. You’ve got some information, but the full picture won’t come into view until you solve it, or the answer is revealed. Sometimes, it may feel like you’ve got everything you need to solve the puzzle, but there are other times when it feels like you’re flying blind.
This week’s Cadillac Championship, which is taking place at the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral in Miami, feels like the latter.
A regular stop on the PGA Tour between 1962 and 2016, this is the varsity circuit’s first time back at the course in a decade. A lot has changed in that span, including the arrival and ascendancy of one Scottie Scheffler, the runaway favorite to win this week’s tournament at +320 (bet365 Sportsbook).
No other player has single-digit odds this week, and only Cameron Young (12/1) is inside 20/1 odds to win.
Scheffler was still at the University of Texas when Adam Scott, who is 35/1 this week, lifted the trophy at the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship, the last event the Tour hosted at Trump National Doral.
Nine other players in this year’s field (Harris English, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth) also participated in that tournament.
So while there is a lot of guesswork this week, we do have some pieces of the puzzle.
First and foremost, this is a signature event with a $20 million purse on the line and seven of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field. No matter if you’re playing at the Blue Monster or Bay Park in East Rockaway, you’ll need your A-game to put away this type of competition.
As for the course, it is called the Blue Monster for a reason. It is long, and there is water everywhere. You better have the ol’ No. 1 humming if you’re going to conquer this beast.
Let’s get to the picks.
A couple of weeks ago, Tommy Fleetwood was one of the trendiest picks to win the Masters. The Merseysider had four top-10 finishes in his five PGA Tour starts before Augusta this season, and he was coming off a FedEx Cup triumph at the end of 2025.
Two pedestrian showings later, and Fleetwood is in the same range as Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp, Min-Woo Lee, and Russell Henley.
All of those players are threats to win this week, but Fleetwood is in a class of his own compared to that company.
Put it this way. If this tournament were held on March 30 instead of April 30, Fleetwood would likely be half this price. Buy the dip.
Not much has gone right for Keegan Bradley since a disastrous stint as captain in the Ryder Cup in September, but the St. John’s alum has begun to percolate.
After going months without a positive step, Bradley posted his best-ever finish (T21) at the Masters three weeks ago and then followed that up with a T12 at the RBC Heritage, his first top-15 finish of the season.
Outside of his recent blip, Bradley has been remarkably consistent over the past four years, scoring four wins — three at signature events — in that span. Plus, his game is built around his ability off the tee, so he should be a fit here as long as he has shaken off whatever was bugging him since the Ryder Cup.
Seven weeks ago, Daniel Berger was seemingly on his way to a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A disastrous Sunday ruined that, and Berger has struggled to find his form since, but the silver lining is that it showed that the Floridian can still contend in these elite events.
Perhaps a trip to familiar confines is just what the doctor ordered for the 33-year-old.
A native of Broward County and one of the few players in this field who participated in the 2016 Cadillac Championship, we’ll lean on Berger’s experience to give him a chance to outrun his odds.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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