The 2026 World Cup will start a new era in international soccer. For the first time in the tournament’s history, it will feature a 48-team field (up from 32) and will be played in three different countries.
The expanded field will also bring with it a new format.
The 48 teams will be separated into 12 groups of four, with the top two countries in each set automatically qualifying for the knockout stage along with the eight best third-place finishers, giving us a Round of 32 to begin the single-elimination portion of the tournament.
The new structure of the tournament will certainly bring change, but that doesn’t mean we can’t rely on some historical data to help guide us as we try to handicap the 2026 World Cup.
| Year | Team | Pre-tournament odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Argentina | +550 |
| 2018 | France | +700 |
| 2014 | Germany | +600 |
| 2010 | Spain | +350* |
| 2006 | Italy | 11/1 |
| 2002 | Brazil | +600 |
| 1998 | France | +700 |
| 1994 | Brazil | +250* |
| 1990 | West Germany | +600 |
| 1986 | Argentina | +400 |
| 1982 | Italy | 18/1 |
| 1978 | Argentina | +400 |
| 1974 | West Germany | +225* |
| 1970 | Brazil | +350 |
| 1966 | England | +450 |
The data above spans generations, and the World Cup’s format has changed considerably in the last 60 years, but it does paint a clear picture. One of the favorites almost always wins the tournament.
Only twice has a team with double-digit odds lifted the Jules Rimet Trophy, while 11 of the last 15 winners have gone off at 6/1 or shorter. The average odds of the last 15 World Cup champions are +587.
Interestingly, only three of the outright favorites have won in that span, with Spain being the last to do so in 2010.
While one of the heavyweights usually wins the World Cup, at least one favorite almost always crashes out early.
In five of the past six tournaments, at least one of the top eight teams in the pre-tournament betting market failed to survive the group stage. The only World Cup to not feature any real shock eliminations in the group stage was Germany 2006.
The most shocking example came in 2002, when co-favorites Argentina and France were both eliminated before the knockout round.
The expanded field of the 2026 World Cup and the fact that 32 teams will advance to the knockout rounds could water down this trend, but history tells us that one of the favorites will be going home very early this summer.
We have yet to see a true long shot win the World Cup, but several roughies have come close in recent iterations of the tournament.
In 2022, Morocco (200/1) and Croatia (50/1) both made it to the semifinals before being eliminated by France and Argentina, respectively.
Croatia got even closer four years earlier, finishing as runners-up to France despite boasting 33/1 odds before the tournament started. Kockasti were also semi-finalists in 1998, when they began the tournament as 66/1 outsiders.
The semifinals in 2014 were chalky, but Uruguay made it to the semifinals in 2010 as a 100/1 long shot.
The 2002 World Cup is known as one of the most chaotic in history thanks to some dubious officiating, but it was also full of surprises. South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1) were both semifinalists that year.
Every World Cup produces monumental upsets, but Qatar 2022 was on another level.
The tone was set early by Saudi Arabia, which stunned eventual champions Argentina as a 20/1 underdog in the group stage. The chaos continued when Japan shocked both Spain and Germany to win Group E. Samurai Blue was 7/1 in both matches, and they were as high as 28/1 in live-betting markets after falling behind against Germany.
Unfortunately, Germany was on the wrong side of another massive upset four years earlier. South Korea eliminated Die Mannschaft with a 2-0 win in the group stage in Russia 2018. The Taegeuk Warriors were 18/1 in the pre-match market.
Perhaps the most celebrated upset in the history of international soccer, Senegal’s 1-0 win over defending champions France in the opening match of South Korea/Japan 2002 set the tone for a chaotic World Cup. The Lions of Teranga were as high as 11/1 to beat Les Bleus, but they didn’t stop there. Senegal made it all the way to the quarterfinals, where they lost to Turkey.
Senegal’s stunner against France was a signal that African soccer had closed the gap on the traditional powers, but they weren’t the first country from the continent to alter the landscape.
Playing in their first-ever World Cup match, Algeria upset tournament-favorites West Germany in Spain 1982. No moneyline odds are archived, but Les Fennecs were 2000/1 to lift the trophy, and were only eliminated because of a dubious match, now known as the “Disgrace of Gijon,” played by Austria and West Germany later in the group stage.
Eight years after Algeria’s win, Cameroon gave Africa another unforgettable moment by upsetting Diego Maradona and Argentina. The Indomitable Lions, who were 500/1 outsiders before the tournament, almost pulled another stunner in the quarterfinals against England, but they were eliminated in extra time after blowing a late lead.
Other seismic upsets include the USA’s win over England in 1950, North Korea’s 1-0 victory against Italy in 1966, and Costa Rica’s 1-0 triumph against Italy in 2014.
Not only can you count on there being a couple of massive upsets at every World Cup, but you are almost certain to get at least one shocking group winner.
There have been 32
Six of the eight favorites won their groups in 2022, but the two outliers were huge prices. Japan was 11/1 when it flipped the script by winning Group E ahead of Germany, Spain, and Costa Rica, and Morocco sprung a surprise by topping Group F, which also included Croatia and Belgium, as a 9/1 underdog.
Russia 2018 also saw six of eight favorites top their group, with Sweden (+700) and Croatia (+240) being the two outliers.
The 2014 World Cup, hosted by Brazil, produced arguably the most surprising group-winner in the history of the tournament. Placed in “The Group of Death” with Italy, England, and Uruguay, Costa Rica was 40/1 to finish in first place. After upsetting Uruguay and Italy, Los Ticos topped the group, and eliminated both England and Italy, by holding The Three Lions scoreless in a nil-nil draw.
Costa Rica was one of two underdogs, along with the Netherlands (+225), to win their group in 2014.
The biggest surprise in the group stage of the 2010 World Cup was sprung by none other than the Stars & Stripes.
Staring down elimination, the United States got a last-gasp winner from Landon Donovan in the final match of the round robin to beat Algeria, 1-0. The goal sent the Americans to the top of Group C, which also included England and Slovenia.
The Yanks were +400 to finish in first and were one of three underdogs to top their set. Uruguay (+400) and Paraguay (+333) were the others.
The Golden Boot is awarded to the leading goalscorer at the World Cup.
Most of the recent winners had a number of things in common: They went deep in the tournament, they were their country’s primary penalty-kick taker, and they played for one of the favorites.
Only one of the last six winners, James Rodriguez in 2014, played for a team that didn’t make it to at least the semifinals.
Five of the last six top scorers had double-digit odds before the tournament started, and the average price of the winners in that span was +1760.
| Year | Winner (Country) | No. of Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kylian Mbappe (France) | 8 | +800 |
| 2018 | Harry Kane (England) | 6 | 16/1 |
| 2014 | James Rodriguez (Colombia) | 6 | 33/1 |
| 2010 | Thomas Muller (Germany) | 5** | 33/1 |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose (Germany) | 5 | 16/1 |
Kylian Mbappe of France is the favorite to win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup at +600 (DraftKings). England’s Harry Kane (+700), Argentina’s Lionel Messi (12/1), Norway’s Erling Haaland (14/1), and Spain’s Lamine Yamal (18/1) and Mikel Oyarzabal (18/1) are the only other players under 20/1.
Other notable prices include Cristiano Ronaldo (20/1), Ousmane Dembele (28/1), and Christian Pulisic (80/1).
The United States Men’s National Team is 55/1 to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel Sportsbook. They are tied with Japan for 13th-favorite, behind the likes of Norway (22/1), Morocco (40/1), and Colombia (40/1), but ahead of Mexico (65/1), Uruguay (65/1), and Croatia (80/1).
Barring any major market movement, this will be the shortest price on the United States to win the World Cup since 2006, when they were 50/1.
| Year | Odds | Stage of elimination |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55/1 | TBD |
| 2022 | 100/1 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | 125/1 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | 66/1 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | 50/1 | Group stage |
| 2002 | 150/1 | Quarterfinals |
| 1998 | 150/1 | Group stage |
| 1994 | 40/1 | Round of 16 |
| 1990 | 500/1 | Group stage |
The Yanks have made it to the Round of 16 the last three times they’ve made it to the World Cup (they didn’t qualify in 2018), and have only been eliminated in the group stage once since 1998.
The United States is a +105 favorite to win Group D ahead of Turkey (+180), Paraguay (+310), and Australia (10/1) in the 2026 World Cup.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | +500 |
| Spain | +500 |
| England | +650 |
| Brazil | +800 |
| Argentina | +850 |
| Portugal | 11/1 |
| Germany | 14/1 |
| The Netherlands | 20/1 |
| Norway | 30/1 |
| Belgium | 35/1 |
| Colombia | 40/1 |
| Morocco | 50/1 |
| Japan | 50/1 |
| USA | 60/1 |
| Uruguay | 65/1 |
| Mexico | 75/1 |
| Switzerland | 80/1 |
| Croatia | 80/1 |
| Ecuador | 90/1 |
| Turkiye | 100/1 |
| Sweden | 100/1 |
| Senegal | 110/1 |
| Paraguay | 150/1 |
| Austria | 150/1 |
| Scotland | 200/1 |
| Canada | 200/1 |
| Bosnia | 250/1 |
| Czechia | 250/1 |
| Ivory Coast | 250/1 |
| Ghana | 300/1 |
| Egypt | 300/1 |
| Algeria | 350/1 |
| South Korea | 450/1 |
| Tunisia | 500/1 |
| Australia | 500/1 |
| Iran | 500/1 |
| DR Congo | 700/1 |
| South Africa | 800/1 |
| Uzbekistan | 1000/1 |
| Cape Verde | 1000/1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1000/1 |
| Qatar | 1000/1 |
| Panama | 1000/1 |
| New Zealand | 1000/1 |
| Iraq | 1000/1 |
| Curacao | 2000/1 |
| Jordan | 2000/1 |
| Haiti | 2500/1 |
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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