The Western Conference Finals have delivered through four games, and Game 5 presents the Thunder and Spurs with an opportunity to put their stamp on the series.
The Thunder are coming off their first lopsided loss of the NBA playoffs in Game 4 and head back home with a chance to shift the momentum back to their side.
Oddsmakers give Oklahoma City the edge with the spread set at 5.5 points and the Over/Under sitting at 215.5 total points.
Bodies have been dropping like flies in this series because of the physicality of both teams. Ankles, adductors, calves, and hamstrings have been pushed to their limits over the first four games, which has put even more emphasis on the stars on both sides.
The Thunder have upped their defensive pressure on Victor Wembanyama, and the Spurs have responded in kind by forcing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to work every second up the floor.
Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 19 points in Game 4 after being hounded by Spurs guards, mostly Stephon Castle, because the Thunder lacked reliable ball handlers to help relieve pressure on the reigning MVP.
This is not new territory for SGA. The Pacers employed a similar strategy in last year’s NBA Finals, giving the league’s best player a taste of what the Thunder defense does to opponents. The reason Gilgeous-Alexander is truly great is that he can adjust from game to game and find the answers to the opposing team’s test.
As much as Castle has been a pest when guarding Gilgeous-Alexander, SGA is shooting 14 of 30 against him in this series and has drawn five fouls against Castle through four games. Throughout the playoffs, he is shooting 50 percent from the floor when tightly contested (defender within four feet), per NBA Advanced stats.
Castle is making SGA work, but maintaining that consistency throughout the series is a tall task. I’m skeptical that his defense will continue to have the same impact as he tires out.
With Game 5 in Oklahoma City and the series tied 2-2, the stage is set for the MVP to play like one under pressure. I’ll bet SGA to go over 29.5 points in a pivotal Game 5.
The Play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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