There is an adage that goes, “You don’t have to win the World Cup to win the World Cup.”
And there was no question who the winners of the first round of matches were.
Cape Verde’s heroic nil-nil draw against tournament favorites Spain stopped the entire sporting world in its tracks and breathed some serious life into the competition. The images of 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha are now part of World Cup lore, and the Blue Sharks‘ bandwagon grew by the millions.
The draw also put the knockout stage in reach for Cape Verde.
They’ve got two matches left, against Uruguay on Sunday and Saudi Arabia on Friday, and if they can find a way to get three points with their goal difference in decent shape, they will crash the Round of 32.
Bubista’s brave bunch are +650 underdogs against Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay on Sunday.
Uruguay won’t be a tougher task than Spain for Cape Verde, but they will be a very different one. While the Spaniards prefer to play patiently in their buildup, Uruguay wants the game to be moving.
Bielsa is one of the most influential managers in the history of soccer and is known for his demanding style of play that puts an emphasis on pressure and quick decisions.
That was on display for Uruguay against Saudi Arabia, but La Celeste just didn’t have the execution in front of goal to get the three points they deserved.
Uruguay created 1.72 expected goals, attempted 27 shots towards goal, and had 41 touches in Saudi Arabia’s penalty box in Round 1.
They were held to just one goal, and it came late in the match after they fell behind.
Cape Verde will likely try to set itself up similarly to Saudi Arabia, but don’t expect the Blue Sharks to just park the bus. Uruguay will attack with numbers and can leave themselves exposed if they turn the ball over.
Cape Verde didn’t score against Spain, and they didn’t create too many opportunities, but they did some serious chops in transition, and they should get more chances against an opponent that plays with a lot more risk than La Furia Roja.
Uruguay’s all-action attacking philosophy will be tough for Cape Verde to hold in check, but I expect Cape Verde to find the back of the net in this one, too.
The Play: Both teams to score — Yes (+148, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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