Ecuador was one of the most popular dark horses before the 2026 World Cup. One tepid loss later, and everybody is off the bandwagon.
La Tri will have a golden opportunity to get back in good graces with a matchup against Curacao on Saturday.
Not only does Ecuador need to win this match, but it is imperative that they pad their goal difference as they close the group stage against Germany.
There have been some monumental performances from long shots already at this World Cup, but Curacao couldn’t find any magic against Germany.
The Blue Wave did get a moment to remember when Livano Comenencia scored to knot the game, 1-1, but things unraveled from there and Germany waltzed out with a 7-1 victory.
That performance doesn’t inspire much confidence for Dick Advocaat’s side going forward, but they will face a very different test against Ecuador.
While Germany likes to overwhelm opponents, Ecuador plays a much more stoic style of soccer. They prefer to dig in and let their physicality be the difference, but things can get stagnant when they’re controlling the tempo of a match, like they will be expected to on Saturday in Kansas City.
The one wrinkle in all of this is that Curacao, by virtue of its minus-6 goal difference, needs to get a result from this match if it is going to have any hope of advancing.
Most models project three points, and a minus-2 goal difference would give you about a 50/50 chance of advancing as one of the eight best third-place finishers, so Curacao will almost certainly need at least four points to make it through.
Maybe Advocaat, the oldest manager in the history of the World Cup, throws caution to the wind, but I think it’s more likely that Curacao digs in against Ecuador, as the South Americans aren’t all that comfortable when they’re the ones dictating the tempo of a match.
Curacao should be able to hold on here to make this a little bit sweaty for La Tri.
The Play: Curacao +2.5 goals (-115, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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