After one of the biggest sporting events of the year, the UFC returns to its Apex venue.
Last week’s card at the White House was incredible for the promotion. They absolutely nailed the production, from walkouts to aesthetics, and the fights themselves were action-packed.
Regardless of how you feel about cage fights on the South Lawn, the UFC expects plenty of new fans to be tuning in to the product.
Below, we break down all 12 fights this weekend and give our best bets for UFC Vegas 119.
These two flyweights fought each other many moons ago, as Horiguchi submitted Kape in 2017 when they both fought under the Japan-based Rizin banner.
Kape was just 23 years old at the time and has improved dramatically since then, making him the -172 favorite in this rematch.
Horiguchi probably has more paths to victory in this fight, as he’s plenty competent on the feet when striking and represents a clear grappling advantage should he need that.
Kape has done a good job of defensive grappling of late and has an 81 percent takedown defense rate.
Still, I really trust Horiguchi’s defense not to get knocked out by Kape.
I think this fight goes the distance, which comes in at plus-money on Polymarket, while the rest of the wagering market is -110.
Prediction: Fight goes the distance (+101, Polymarket)
Another co-main event spot for Cutelaba, who comes in as a highly entertaining fighter in the light heavyweight division, having won three of his last four.
There are a ton of questions surrounding Cutelaba. He’s just 20-11, and looking back, he had a three-fight skid against Ryan Spann, Johnny Walker, and Kennedy Nzechukwu in 2022. None of those losses have aged well at all and are borderline embarrassing.
Stirling has been dominant in his short MMA career, going 9-0 and defeating some legitimate talent in Rodolfo Bellato.
From a betting perspective, this fight is +175 to go the distance on BetRivers, and Stirling has shown a willingness to go the distance with three of his last four fights hitting the cards.
Stirling is a patient striker, and Cutelaba is anything but patient. Still, I think this is a spot to look for a longer fight than the odds are giving credit for.
Take a look at Over 1.5 rounds at -160 on bet365 and target Stirling’s moneyline for parlays.
I also like the decision line, as five of their last 10 fights combined have gone to decision (three for Stirling and two for Cutelaba).
Predictions: Over 1.5 rounds (-160, bet365); fight goes the distance (+175, BetRivers)
Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez: Fight goes the distance (-124, FanDuel)
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov: Magomedov by submission (+260, FanDuel).
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili: Oliveira moneyline for parlays.
Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas: Under 1.5 rounds (+220, Hard Rock Bet).
Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins: Fight goes the distance (+240, Fanatics).
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo: Nascimento ML for parlays (-183, Kalshi).
Gaston Bolanos vs. Michael Aswell Jr.: Michael Aswell Jr. by submission (13/1, BetRivers).
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli: Under 1.5 rounds (-190, bet365).
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos: Rosa by decision (+110, Fanatics Sportsbook).
Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi: Pass.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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