The Sabres and Canadiens are tied one game apiece with the series shifting to Montreal, and we’re just getting warm.
Montreal’s 5-1 victory in Game 2 came by pressuring Buffalo into puck management mistakes and transforming those errors into odd-man opportunities.
Montreal head coach Martin St. Louis said, there is a lot of common DNA between these two clubs. On the other hand, Buffalo’s Bowen Byram is calling this series “fun hockey,” given that both teams pressure pucks aggressively and attack instead of sitting back in the neutral zone.
As a result, the matchup has showcased lots of free ice, and with it, high-danger scoring chances: the Canadiens have sparked 25 of them to Buffalo’s 22.
In Game 3, we’re looking at a goal total of 5.5 despite all four regular season meetings leaping that line.
Buffalo’s top line was swamped in Game 2, finishing with dreadful five-on-five metrics. For all of the premier talent between Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, the power play went back to incompetence after scoring two goals in Game 1. I still expect positive regression with Buffalo ranking third overall in expected goals in the playoffs.
Jakub Dobes rebounded well in Montreal’s cage, but he still allowed four goals on Buffalo’s first 10 shots in Game 1. The heavy lateral movement he’ll face won’t slow down.
I’m not sure how to trust either Buffalo goaltender here. Alex Lyon entered Game 2 with a .950 postseason save percentage, yet Montreal still solved him five times, repeatedly winning transition looks and face-offs.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen doesn’t provide much more confidence with a minus-2.5 Goals Saved Above Expected from a pair of lousy starts against Boston.
They’ll have to make these adjustments in a raucous Bell Centre, widely regarded as the toughest building in the NHL, so look for the “fun” to continue.
THE PLAY: Over 5.5 goals (-130, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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