Maybe Portugal wasn’t the juggernaut we all thought before drawing Congo DR 1-1.
Maybe we didn’t credit Colombia enough before tearing through their first two games to lead Group K.
Maybe neither of those notions are true.
Either way, we’re gonna find out when the two play each other for the division Saturday.
Bookmakers are giving the edge to Seleção das Quinas, who are juiced to -115 on the three-way moneyline, while La Tricolor can be grabbed for a price as long as +320 odds at bet365.
Transitive property doesn’t always hold true, but for context, let’s talk about both team’s respective matches against the DR Congo.
Portugal, which plays a possession-based game, had the ball at their feet for 75 percent of the match despite registering one measly shot on target. DR Congo defended them compactly and stunted their creativity through closing passing lanes and denying Portugal space between the lines.
And aside from the possession advantage, nothing else about the box score was pretty; the Portuguese fell in expected goals 0.87 to 0.67.
This result was one of the biggest surprises of the group stage before Portugal exploded for a 5-0 pounding of Uzbekistan.
On the other hand, we saw Colombia, a counterattacking side, outshoot DR Congo 9-1 in a 1-0 victory. They by no means dominated the match, however, as the Léopards applied the same compact mid-block that disrupted Portugal.
This was a wasteful display, and the Colombians won’t be given the same luxuries against Portugal. Seleção das Quinas heads into this critical match tied with Spain for the highest possession average in the World Cup, completing the second-most passes per match.
This technical security is manned by Rúben Dias anchoring the defense, João Neves and Vitinha controlling midfield tempo and Bernardo Silva operating between the lines. Neither DR Congo nor Uzbekistan tested Columbia’s block the way this group is capable of doing.
Colombia’s reactive approach relies on Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez finding quick breaks. Portugal will neutralize that threat by compressing space in midfield and counter-pressing aggressively to prevent Colombia from turning defensive recoveries into forward transitions.
For instance, their Uzbekistan massacre demonstrated how they can unleash waves of attacks that force opponents deeper and deeper, limiting their ability to counter.
And lest we forget Cristiano Ronaldo, who even at 41, is Portugal’s top rated player in FotMob rating. He just bagged a brace and earned Player of the Match, becoming the first player to score at six World Cups. His movement in the box draws defenders and creates space for runners from midfield like no one else on the pitch in this match.
If Portugal strikes first, Colombia will be forced out of their mid-block and into an open game, serving up the Portuguese’s attack on a silver platter.
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There are many who believe the market is inflating Portugal after Ronaldo’s big splash. Those same pundits say the South Americans are getting disrespected on the market after not only being the more convincing side in this tournament, but having gone 28 games unbeaten just a couple of years ago.
I’m still sticking with firepower over composure in a must-win situation in what is likely Ronaldo’s last kick at the can.
THE PLAY: Portugal (-115, FanDuel)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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