Group L is set up in such a way that Wednesday’s World Cup clash between Ghana and Panama will be crucial if either side wants to make it to the knockout rounds.
With England and Croatia, the two favorites of Group L, on deck for these two teams, the Black Stars and Los Canaleros know this will be their best chance at picking up three points.
The bookmakers believe Ghana is the likeliest winner, as the Black Stars are +120 on the three-way moneyline. Panama checks in at +240.
Ghana is an interesting side to handicap. They breezed through qualifying, but their group was exceptionally soft. To test themselves ahead of the World Cup, the Black Stars scheduled a tricky cohort of friendlies, which didn’t go well.
Ghana got shutout by Japan and South Korea, lost 5-1 to Austria, and 2-1 to Germany. Friendlies are often not worth looking into too deeply, but these were important matches to get a handle on where the Black Stars are as a team.
The soccer powers in the country clearly didn’t like what they saw from those matches, as they fired manager Otto Addo and replaced him with Carlos Queiroz, one of the most experienced coaches in the sport.
Known for his conservative tactics, Queiroz has managed Portugal (twice), the UAE, South Africa, Iran (twice), Egypt, Qatar, Oman, and now Ghana. This is his fifth World Cup.
While we haven’t seen much of Queiroz’s tactics on display with Ghana, his rap sheet is long. It would be pretty surprising if he lets the Black Stars run rampant, even against an opponent like Panama.
Los Canaleros are one of the biggest long shots in this tournament, but they’ve made a habit of pulling some big results over the last decade. Panama defeated the USA, 1-0, in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last March, and they qualified for the 2018 World Cup ahead of the Stars & Stripes.
Typically, Panama does its best work when it sits deep in a 5-4-1 low block and frustrates its opponents. That will make for an interesting stylistic matchup, as Queiroz will want his side to do the same, at least against better teams than Panama.
As things stand right now, there are more similarities than differences between these two teams. Ghana is the more talented side and has a world-class player in Antoine Semenyo, but they could be quite uncomfortable in this stylistic setup, and that makes them vulnerable to the upset on Wednesday.
The Play: Panama moneyline (+240, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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