I have followed this governor’s race as closely as anyone in California Republican politics. I have not endorsed either candidate.

I gave Chad Bianco every opportunity to drive his numbers up. I waited until the last possible moment. I wanted to give Bianco supporters every chance to be proven right.

The numbers never moved enough. And now the calendar has made the decision for all of us.

This week I cast my ballot for Steve Hilton.

I want to be clear about something before I explain why. Steve Hilton himself made the mathematical case in these pages this week. He is a candidate with an obvious stake in the argument. I am not.

I am a longtime strategist with no role in either campaign, no financial interest in the outcome, and no agenda beyond wanting California Republicans to actually compete in November.

Which is precisely why the math troubles me as much as it does.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is a serious candidate for governor. He has led a major law enforcement agency, spent 33 years in public safety, raised millions of dollars, and built a deep, statewide, conservative grassroots network.

At the California Republican Party convention, Bianco received more delegate support than any other candidate — though not enough to secure the party endorsement. He has run a credible race and made a compelling case.

But he is running into the unforgiving math of California’s top-two election system, and the window has now closed.

For a brief moment, there was a scenario where two Republicans might both advance to November. That possibility effectively ended when Eric Swalwell collapsed.

The roughly 15% of the vote he carried did not consolidate behind the Republican field — it reshuffled the Democratic side and made the math for a dual Republican advance almost impossible.

Look across recent credible statewide polls and the trend is hard to ignore. Emerson College Polling showed Hilton tied for second place at 17%, while Bianco trailed at 11%.

A recent CBS/YouGov survey likewise showed Hilton leading the Republican field while Bianco lagged behind.

And RealClearPolling’s aggregation of surveys points to the same conclusion: Republican voters are consolidating behind Hilton.

Different pollsters. Different methodologies. Same conclusion.

When Trump endorsed Hilton, the race changed further. But I want to be direct: The polls are why I voted the way I did — not the endorsement, and not any single policy position.

I have spoken with Hilton directly, including a long conversation on my podcast, and I have come away impressed by his command of California’s challenges and his realistic sense of what a Republican governor could actually accomplish with a Democrat-controlled Legislature. That is a genuine plus.

But the bottom line is simpler than that: He is the Republican who can make the runoff. That is what drove my ballot.

In California’s top-two system, voters do not get rewarded for sentiment. They get punished for division.

I take no pleasure in saying that. I think Bianco would have been an excellent governor. But this slow-rolling contest has become the political equivalent of passing a kidney stone. At some point, reality has to be faced.

Because voters unwisely adopted California’s top-two primary system about 15 years ago, the candidates who finish first and second in June advance to November regardless of party. Right now, multiple polls suggest this is a three-person race for those two spots — Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer and Hilton.

If Republican voters do not consolidate behind the one Republican actually in contention, California Republicans could be shut out of the November election for governor altogether. That would be a political calamity.

And the damage would not stop at the governor’s race. Republicans hold thousands of offices here — in Congress, the Legislature, county governments, city councils, school boards and special districts. If there is no top-of-the-ticket candidate to rally behind, nobody can fully predict how devastating the blow could be to Republican enthusiasm and turnout.

Statewide measures seeking billions in new taxes, new borrowing and more government power could sail through. A critically important voter ID initiative could hang in the balance.

I am not calling on Sheriff Bianco to drop out. He does not strike me as someone who stops running anyway — he is a run-hard-through-the-finish-line kind of guy, and I respect that.

But Bianco supporters do not have to dislike their candidate to recognize the danger. They only have to look at the numbers — and then decide whether loyalty to a candidate they admire is worth the risk of handing Gavin Newsom exactly the November he wants.

The alternative is a sprint to the left between two Democrats, while Republicans watch from the sidelines.

I voted to prevent that. Every Californian who believes a generation of progressive one-party rule has been enough can do the same.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.

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