It’s anybody’s guess what version of Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to show up on any given matchday. The former World No. 3 has spent the last four years playing erratic tennis, at times flashing his ceiling, but more often than not playing at a head-scratching level.
At one time, it felt like Tsitsipas was a safe bet to win the French Open, but now it would be a surprise if the Greek even made a run into the second week.
Despite his inconsistent play and unpredictable temperament, Tsitsipas is a -670 favorite to beat Alexandre Muller in Round 1 of Roland Garros on Tuesday.
Tsitsipas caught a break with his draw at the French Open. Now ranked 82nd in the world and boasting a 20-20 record over the last 52 weeks, Tsitsipas could have been scheduled against anybody in this field, from Jannik Sinner to a qualifier. Fate put him up against Muller, another player who is seriously struggling to find his form this year.
The Frenchman enjoyed a breakout 2025 campaign, surging up to World No. 38 by mid-August, but he’s dropped down the rankings like a stone thanks to a 4-9 record this season. Notably, Muller is just 2-4 on clay, and he comes into Roland Garros riding a four-match losing streak.
On paper, he shouldn’t put up much resistance to Tsitsipas, so long as the 2021 French Open runner-up has his wits about him.
That is really what we’re handicapping here.
If Tsitsipas is interested, he should be able to play Muller right off the court and move on to a winnable second-round match against either Matteo Arnaldi or Tallon Griekspoor. But if Tsitsipas’ head is elsewhere, this could be a slog between two players who are a combined 9-10 on the dirt in 2026.
Since it’s hard to trust Tsitsipas to just come out and handle his business, but it’s even harder to trust Muller to take advantage, we’ll look to the Over 34.5 games and hope that this is a roller coaster.
The Play: Over 34.5 games (-115, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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