Germany didn’t have to break much of a sweat in a 7-1 win over Curacao, but things will get a lot tougher from here on out for Die Mannschaft.
The real test begins with the Ivory Coast, which upset trendy dark horses Ecuador, 1-0, with a last-gasp winner in Philadelphia last week.
Germany is a robust -195 favorite on the three-way moneyline for this World Cup tilt in Toronto on Saturday afternoon.
It’s hard to glean too much from Germany’s rout over Curacao. The Germans did get a scare when Curacao knotted the game, 1-1, but they took over from there and never really had to come out of second gear to do so.
When they’re at their best, Germany overruns you in the middle of the field. Julian Nagelsmann loves to create a numerical advantage in the midfield, which sucks defenses in and allows speedy attackers like Leroy Sane or Kai Havertz to make runs behind the line.
Ivory Coast should be well-suited to deal with that approach.
The spine of Les Elephants was spectacular against Ecuador, with Franck Kessie patrolling the midfield, and the center-back partnership of Wilfried Singo and Emmanuel Agbadou dealt with any trouble in front of the goal.
Ivory Coast held Ecuador to just 1.01 expected goals and 16 touches in the 18-yard box in their opening match.
Julian Nagelsmann wants Germany to play with risk and assertiveness, but that will be easier said than done against a well-organized outfit like Ivory Coast.
Germany will need to be more patient, which is something that doesn’t come naturally to Die Mannschaft under Nagelsmann.
Just keeping Germany in check would be a massive boost for Ivory Coast’s chances of progressing, as they have Curacao in their last match of the group stage, so I expect Les Elephants to keep their defensive posture from start to finish.
Bet on this one turning into a chess match.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+126, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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