The NBA playoffs didn’t take long to provide drama.
Knicks-Hawks, Spurs-Trail Blazers, Celtics-76ers and Nuggets-Timberwolves are all tied 1-1. Now that we’ve seen two games in every series, we can compare the on-court results to the expectations entering the playoffs.
One of the most compelling series going into the postseason was the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves matchup. The teams have history after meeting twice in the playoffs in 2023 and 2024. This series feels like an extension of those prior matchups.
The first two games have seen some truly wild swings.
The Wolves led by as much as 12 points in the first half of Game 1 then trailed by as much as 15 in the second half in a loss. In Game 2, they trailed by 19 points in the middle of the second quarter then outlasted the Nuggets in a back-and-forth second half in Denver to tie the series 1-1.
Neither team has played a great game start to finish, but both teams had serious flaws on one side of the ball entering the series — offense for the Timberwolves and defense for the Nuggets — that the other team could exploit.
The Nuggets are still -230 favorites to win the series at DraftKings, but it’s clear the Wolves have the talent to extend this series or win it outright, especially with two home games coming up.
DraftKings is offering the Wolves at +1.5 on the series spread at -155 odds and I like their chances to push this series to seven games, or even win it.
Knicks vs. Hawks had the same potential for volatility before the playoffs started and in Game 2 the Hawks pulled off a stunning comeback against the Knicks despite trailing for 90 percent of the game. The Knicks shot 5-of-22 and scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, their lowest output for a fourth quarter this whole season.
There is plenty of reason for optimism for the Knicks, though. The Knicks had the best fourth-quarter point differential in the NBA during the regular season and their performance in Game 2, though costly, is an outlier. They were 46-2 with a fourth-quarter lead before the Game 2 collapse.
Throughout this series, the Knicks have looked like the better team. They have the size advantage with 7-foot centers Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson to go against the Hawks, who have 6-foot-8 Onyeka Okongwu starting at center. That size has also given them a 37-16 edge in second chance points because of the offensive rebounding edge.
They also shot better from beyond the arc through two games, which was supposed to be the equalizer for the Hawks. The Hawks haven’t shown an ability to score consistently in the half court yet in this series and that is key in the playoffs. Jalen Brunson also hasn’t had a good game yet. His track record says that will come
I still think the Knicks win this series and after that collapse in Game 2, I expect them to come out with purpose in Game 3. DraftKings has a prop for that exact scenario with +145 odds for the Knicks to win Game 3 and the series.
I expect we’ll see them bounce back in Atlanta.
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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