The Spurs and Timberwolves have provided way more excitement in their series than expected. The Wolves took the home-court advantage in Game 1, then the Spurs took it back in Game 3.
Now, the series heads to Game 5, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as both teams look to gain control.
Oddsmakers have taken a clear side in the matchup listing the Spurs as 10.5-point favorites and -410 on the moneyline.
When handicapping games, data and analytics are always useful tools to help narrow down why a matchup could go one way or the other.
Sometimes, data is less useful than the eye test.
When Victor Wembanyama found out he was ejected from Game 4 Sunday night, the expression on his face barely changed.
His reserved acceptance that he wouldn’t be finishing a hugely important road playoff game could almost be misconstrued as apathetic to someone who never paid attention to Wembanyama.
But that look should be interpreted as a man plotting revenge for a perceived slight.
The Timberwolves have been very physical with Wembanyama in this series and on the play that led to his ejection in Game 4, the Spurs big man attempted to push back.
Clearly he pushed too far, and the Spurs are now split 2-2 in their series with the Timberwolves instead of heading back to San Antonio with a 3-1 lead.
The Spurs, who were massive favorites entering this series, now are in a best-of-three series with two games at home and I’m expecting a dominant performance from Wembanyama in Game 5.
He has shown an incredible ability to rise to the occasion this season.
In Game 1 of the regular season, he made every Mavericks big man look helpless in a 40-point, 15-rebound performance.
Against the Thunder in the NBA Cup semis, he returned from injury to put up 22 points and nine rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench.
In Game 3 of this series, Wembanyama scored 16 of his 39 points in the fourth quarter to shut the door on the Wolves.
Wemby has dominated the glass with 15 rebounds in the first three games of this series.
The scoring has come along slowly, but his scoring outburst was no fluke.
That looked to be a sign that he figured out how to beat the Wolves’ defensive schemes.
I expect a huge revenge game from the “Alien” on Tuesday night, and I like him to go Over his points and rebounds combo prop.
The Play: Victor Wembanyama Over 39.5 points + rebounds (-112, bet365)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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