One of the most anticipated matches of the group stage comes our way Saturday evening when Brazil takes on Morocco at MetLife Stadium at 6 p.m. ET.
It’s been 22 years since Brazil won a World Cup, which feels like a lifetime to the 214 million people in the Land of Samba, and expectations for this iteration of Seleção are lukewarm among pundits, punters and fans.
Morocco is dealing with the opposite phenomenon.
After a shocking run to the semifinals at Qatar 2022, the Atlas Lions are expected to be contenders again this summer, and anything short of a run to the quarterfinals would be viewed as a disappointment.
Brazil is a -160 favorite to win Saturday’s headliner in New Jersey.
It’s strange to say, but Morocco may be the overrated side in this match, with Brazil coming in slightly underrated.
That isn’t saying that Morocco is going to be poor in this tournament, but their body of work at the last World Cup has set a high bar. Nobody is going to be surprised by the Atlas Lions this summer.
Meanwhile, Brazil is relatively unfancied in the market, which has led to some appealing prices on Canarinho.
It’s understandable that Brazil isn’t getting its usual level of support after a poor qualifying campaign, but this team has undergone significant changes over the last year and those changes should provide a significant boost for this tournament.
Carlo Ancelotti, one of the great tournament managers in the history of the sport, is now in charge, and he’s got a team that ticks all the right boxes for this format.
Most Brazilian teams are overloaded with attacking talent and uninspiring on defense, but this squad is balanced.
It also features an all-world spine.
Ancelotti has two elite goalkeepers to choose from, he’s got perhaps the best center-back partnership in the tournament with Gabriel and Marquinhos, and the middle of the park will be patrolled by Casemiro and Bruno Guimares.
Getting through the layers against this team will be a real chore, and Ancelotti’s versatile tactics will allow his star-studded attack, headlined by Vinicius Junior, the freedom to do what they do best.
Morocco is a stubborn opponent with some scoring flair through Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz, but they’ll be made to work exceptionally hard in the heat Saturday evening.
I’m not too sure how many quality looks they’ll get against this terrific Brazilian defense.
Bet on Brazil to hold the fort and pitch a clean sheet in their opener.
The Play: Brazil to win in a shoutout (+140, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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