The 2026 French Open has been full of shocks, and one of the biggest is the fact that Matteo Berrettini is one win away from a trip to the semifinals.
The former World No. 6 has seen his career ravaged by injuries, and he’s been forced to skip Roland Garros in each of the last four years for one reason or another.
Part of the reason that the Italian would opt to skip the French Open is that he didn’t fancy his chances of making a deep run, so he would rather focus on rest in order to be in shape for Wimbledon and the US Open, which are the two Grand Slams where he’s had the most success.
But with Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz all out of the picture, Berrettini is firmly in the running to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday.
To get there, he’ll first need to deal with his countryman, Matteo Arnaldi, in Wednesday’s headliner.
Berrettini’s health wasn’t the only concern coming into the fortnight in Paris. He was also in some poor form. Ranked No. 105 in the world, the 30-year-old played in a pair of Challenger Tour events in the warmup to the French Open. The results weren’t inspiring.
But the Roman was able to put things together in a tough encounter with Marton Fucsovics in Round 1, and by the time Berrettini stepped on the court ahead of his win against Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 64, things had changed.
That’s because World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who was in Berrettini’s section of the draw, was upset by Juan Manuel Cerundolo, which blew open the path to the semifinals for anybody on this side of the bracket.
Even with Sinner out, Berrettini was not on top of anybody’s mind as the player who could take advantage and make it to a semifinal. He had to prove that his body could hold up in the grueling conditions in Paris.
So far, Berrettini has held up, but he will be put through the paces against Arnaldi on Wednesday.
While Berrettini is favored in this matchup, it’s Arnaldi who holds a bit of a stylistic edge. The former boasts a massive serve, and he can generate tremendous power from the baseline, but Arnaldi is a dogged defender and won’t give an inch. He’ll extend rallies and make Berrettini hit the extra shot, which is usually when the former Wimbledon finalist gets himself in trouble.
Those qualities were on display from Arnaldi in each of the past two rounds when he came from behind as an underdog against Raphael Collingnon and Frances Tiafoe in five-set epics.
You can question if Arnaldi’s body will give out on him after so much time on court, but the same can be said of Berrettini, given his injury history.
Arnaldi’s game may not have the power to overwhelm his opponent, but the way to beat Berrettini is to outlast him. I like his odds of doing that.
The Play: Arnaldi moneyline (+158, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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