What a difference a week makes.
Seven days ago, after back-to-back nail-biting losses, every flaw of this Knicks team was being questioned.
Every move was scrutinized, every detail was up for interrogation, and no one was spared the benefit of the doubt.
Could the Knicks continue playing with the same starting lineup? Why wasn’t Karl-Anthony Towns featured more in the offense? Could Jalen Brunson match the level of CJ McCollum? Was Mike Brown being out-coached?
Facing a 2-1 deficit with a high-pressure Game 4 in Atlanta and underdogs to win the series, the Knicks quieted the noise for a few days, but some anxiety remained with the series knotted at 2-2. After they thoroughly dominated the Hawks again in Game 5, the noise has subsided, but won’t completely go away until the Knicks end this series.
Oddsmakers have the Knicks favored by just 2.5 points, which suggests the books aren’t quite convinced the Knicks and Hawks won’t be locked into another tight battle down the stretch.
This series has been a microcosm of the Knicks’ regular season. All season long, the Knicks had incredibly high peaks and terrifyingly low valleys. The swings were hard to comprehend and the playoffs were supposed to be the true test of whether this team was actually worthy of contention.
The Knicks’ up-and-down performances from the first three games didn’t help matters, but through it all it was clear they had the better team.
The Knicks have stifled Atlanta’s offense for the entire series. The most the Hawks have scored in a game is 109 points and they’ve now been held below 100 points in back-to-back games.
They’ve held the Hawks, the fifth-best shooting team in the league this season at 37.1 percent, to 32.2 percent shooting during the playoffs.
More importantly, the Knicks have done a good job limiting fastbreak opportunities. The Hawks ranked third in fastbreak points this season, averaging 18.1 points. The Knicks have cut that number to 12.8 while limiting Atlanta’s half-court offense.
On the offensive end, the Knicks have found something playing through Towns. His scoring has been roughly the same as what we saw from him in the regular season, but his passing has been unlocked in a way that has opened things up for his Knicks teammates.
The Hawks couldn’t stop Towns inside, but now they are struggling to deal with him as a facilitator — Towns has generated more points off his assists (61) through five games of this series than he did in 18 games during the playoffs last year (57).
The Knicks answered most of the questions posed to them during their two-game skid in this series. The one question left is: Can they close the deal?
The Knicks won’t get complacent here. While the Hawks can put up another fight in a close game, the Knicks will lean into the tactics that have grounded the Hawks throughout this series and pulling away.
I’ll split the difference in case we get another fantastic finish.
The Pick: Knicks moneyline (-135, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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