The pedal should be pushed to the metal when the Netherlands takes on Japan at Cowboy Stadium on Sunday afternoon. This Group F encounter figures to be one of the most electric of the first round, as both of these teams will fancy their chances to make
The Netherlands is a +105 favorite to win the match on the three-way moneyline at FanDuel, but you can expect Japan to have plenty of support from the betting community. Samurai Blue was 100/1 to win the World Cup at the end of 2025, and they’re now down to 50/1 at some sportsbooks.
The winner of this match, if there is one, will put themselves in a plum position to top Group F. The loser will feel some serious heat, as the other two teams in the set, Sweden and Tunisia, are no walks in the park.
As always, the Dutch are bringing plenty of dynamic players with them to the World Cup. But what’s different about this iteration of Clockwork Oranje is that their biggest strength is actually the defense.
Virgil van Dijk and Jan Paul van Hecke anchor the backline, but they’ve got one of the world’s best defensive midfielders, Ryan Gravenberch, in front of them. Getting through the middle of the field against the Dutch will not be an easy task.
Ronald Koeman has plenty of terrific ball-movers surrounding the spine of this team, but the scoring punch can certainly be called into question. Koeman could go with a pair of battering rams, Wout Weghorst and Brian Brobbey, up top and play a more old-school, direct style of soccer. Or he can go with Memphis Depay to lead the line. Depay has magic in his boots, but his best days are behind him and he can be invisible if the conditions of the match don’t suit him.
Japan will approach this match the same way they approach every match. Samurai Blue will apply relentless pressure up top and make you earn every bit of grass.
Manager Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge of the national team for nearly eight years and has instilled a clear identity in this group. Every player on Samurai Blue knows his role. The value of that chemistry and cohesion can’t be overstated when it comes to international soccer tournaments.
Moriyasu will be hoping that Wataru Endo, a stalwart in the middle of the pitch, will be fit, but even if he’s not, there is a real platform for Japan to spring an upset in this match.
The Dutch defense is physically formidable and strong, but they’re best deployed against teams looking to swing balls into the middle of the box. Japan is not likely to do that, but instead apply heaps of pressure on the big center-backs, which could unsettle them.
Japan has a real chance to land another famous upset on Sunday.
The Play: Japan moneyline (+250, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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