The 2026 Kentucky Derby was a bettor’s delight.
If you had the right read on the Run for the Roses, you were walking away with a handsome payout on exactas and trifectas thanks to Golden Tempo’s win at 25-1 odds and Ocelli crashing the podium as a 70-1 long shot.
Even with Renegade, the morning-line favorite, in second place, the payouts for exotics were still out of this world.
A $2 exacta returned $314.60 at the Derby, and a $0.50 trifecta would have earned you $2,845.20.
And while the Preakness normally doesn’t pack the same betting punch as the first leg of the Triple Crown, this year’s Run for the Black-Eye Susans has a very Derby-esque feel to it.
The field is headlined by a lukewarm favorite, and there are several long shots that have a legitimate chance to hit the board and add some serious value to your exactas and trifectas.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, there is no curse on the horse that draws the rail in the Preakness.
In fact, three horses since 2015 have donned the Black-Eyed Susans after getting slotted into the No. 1 gate: American Pharoah (2015), War of Will (2019) and National Treasure (2023).
That’s good news, because Taj Mahal seems like the horse to beat in this field. He may not be the favorite, but he brings an unblemished record to the Preakness, and all three of his wins have come over the Laurel Park surface, including a dominant performance in the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 18.
He’s a local, so he may get plenty of betting support, but it isn’t unwarranted against this field.
The expectation is that this race will feature a quick pace, and it’s likely because Napoleon Solo bursts out ahead of the pack and tries to wire the field.
He just may do it.
He had a star-turning win in the Champagne Stakes in October, but had his momentum halted with consecutive fifth-place finishes on the Kentucky Derby Trail, which caused his shine to fade.
However, those results could be excused by some minor injuries that Napoleon Solo picked up, which impacted his training.
He’s fit and firing now, and could be too fast for this field.
This will be an interesting price to monitor, because there are plenty of reasons to like Talkin, but also plenty of reasons to toss him.
On paper, the results and speed numbers are just OK, but that may be passable in a field that feels wanting, especially since there are some serious intangibles that point towards Talkin.
Not only is there a decent chance that this race sets up perfectly for a stalker like Talkin, but he’ll also have one of the best jockeys in the sport, Irad Ortiz Jr., aboard to guide him on the dirt at Laurel Park.
There are more than a few similarities between this race and the Kentucky Derby, including how it could set up for a horse to come from the back of the pack to win it, just like we saw with Golden Tempo a fortnight back.
Most of the horses in this field want to be out front, and that should leave us with plenty of tiring horses down the stretch. Bull by the Horns is one of the few closers in this field, along with Ocelli and Talkin, and his win at the Rushaway Stakes proved he can win a race from the rear.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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