Year four of the sports bettors’ NFL mock draft has arrived.
For those who are new here, the sports bettors’ mock draft isn’t about my draft evaluations or projections. It’s about keeping my ears open and aggregating all of the top analysts to pull together the most informed betting advice that anyone could possibly get ahead of Thursday’s first round.
Betting on information-based markets is not for the faint of heart, and oftentimes involves taking big favorites and projecting trades in order to cash in big.
Last year, we nailed the top four draft picks and hit some others further down the board, including correctly projecting the Giants to trade up for Jaxson Dart at the back-end of the first round.
Here’s a look at our 2026 NFL mock draft for the first round with betting predictions based on those projections.
| Team | Pick | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Raiders | Fernando Mendoza | Drafted No. 1 (-10000, Fanatics) |
| No. 2 Jets | David Bailey | Drafted No. 2 (-135, DraftKings) | Going with the reporting, despite the bettors slamming Reese to the Jets. Is it their best smoke screen ever? |
| No. 3 Saints (via projected trade with the Cardinals) | Arvell Reese | Drafted No. 3 (+170, FanDuel) | I can’t imagine Reese falls lower than the third pick. |
| No. 4 Titans | Jeremiyah Love | Love draft slot Under 5.5 (-500, DraftKings) | Very tough to slot Love if Reese is the No. 3 pick via trade. Regardless, no one is projecting Love to fall below No. 5; this is a safe bet. |
| No. 5: Giants | Jordan Tyson | Jordan Tyson to be drafted by the Giants (+173, Kalshi) | This covers if my top four is wrong and Tyson falls to No. 10. |
| No. 6 Browns | Spencer Fano | Fano draft slot Under 10.5 (-105, BetMGM) | Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, and Walter Football have Fano going No. 6 overall. Too much smoke to ignore. |
| No. 7 Commanders | Sonny Styles | Draft position Over 5.5 (-130, Bet365) |
| No. 8 Cardinals (via trade with Saints) | Francis Mauigoa | Draft slot Under 9.5 (-108, Caesars) | This is the Jeremiah special; worth a wager. |
| No. 9 Chiefs | Mansoor Delane | Draft slot Under 9.5 (-105, theScore Bet) | Covering myself in case of a trade up. |
| No. 10 Giants | Caleb Downs | Team to draft Caleb Downs: Giants (-149, Polymarket) |
| No. 11 Dolphins | Carnell Tate | Draft slot Over 7.5 (-115, bet365) |
| No.12 Cowboys | Reuben Bain | Draft slot Over 9.5 (-105, FanDuel) |
| No. 13 Rams | Makai Lemon | Rams draft a wide receiver (+100, DraftKings) | Puka Nacua’s in rehab, and Davante Adams is getting older. Many mock drafters have them taking Lemon, whether via trade back or at No. 13. |
| No. 14 Ravens | Kenyon Sadiq | Ravens draft Kenyon Sadiq (+400, DraftKings) |
| No. 15 Buccaneers | Akheem Mesidor | Falcons draft an edge rusher/defensive lineman (+100, Fanatics) |
| No. 16 Jets | Omar Cooper Jr. | Draft slot Under 23.5 (-175, Caesars) |
| No. 17 Lions | Kadyn Proctor | Lions draft offensive lineman (-380, DraftKings) |
| No. 18 Vikings | Dillon Thieneman | Vikings draft a safety (+170, BetMGM) |
| No. 19 Panthers | Monroe Freeling | Panthers draft an offensive lineman (+240, DraftKings) | Freeling draft slot Over 17.5 (+134, FanDuel) |
| No. 20 Cowboys | Keldric Faulk | Draft slot Under 22.5 (-135, FanDuel) |
| No. 21 Steelers | Blake Miller | Steelers draft an offensive lineman (-135, Bet365) |
| No. 22 Chargers | Olaivavega Ioane | Chargers draft an offensive lineman (+165, FanDuel) |
| No. 23 Eagles | Max Iheanachor | Over 7.5 offensive lineman drafted (-380, bet365) |
| No. 24 Browns | Denzel Boston | Draft slot under 26.5 (-105, bet365) | Going with Schrager over Jeremiah for this pick. They both have Cleveland taking a receiver here, though Jeremiah has KC Concepcion. |
| No. 25 Bears | TJ Parker | Bears draft an EDGE rusher (-120, DraftKings) |
| No. 26 Bills | K.C. Concepceion | Draft slot Over 24.5 (+100, DraftKings) |
| No. 27 49ers | Caleb Lomu | Over 7.5 offensive linemen drafted (-380, bet365) |
| No. 28 Texans | Peter Woods | Tedans to draft a defensive lineman (+250, Fanatics Sportsbook) |
| No. 29 Chiefs | Malachi Lawrence | N/A |
| No. 30 Dolphins | Colton Hood | Colton Hood to be drafted No. 30 (+800, DraftKings) |
| No. 31 Patriots | Peter Woods | Peter Woods drafted in first round (-190, bet365) |
| No. 32 Cardinals (via trade with Seahawks) | Ty Simpson | Simpson draft slot Over 23.5 (-270, DraftKings) | Simpson to be selected No. 32 overall (+600, DraftKings) |
Ty Simpson is perhaps the most polarizing talent in the NFL Draft, and for good reason.
Without getting into the weeds of whether he actually deserves to be a first-round pick, let’s go to what the mock drafters are projecting.
Mel Kiper Jr. has the Cardinals trading back into the first round at No. 30 to snag Simpson, well Over the 23.5 projection that sportsbooks currently have listed.
I’m targeting the No. 32 pick instead because Peter Schrager has Arizona projected to trade up for Simpson in his final mock draft.
Both mock drafters are very plugged in, so I think the +600 spot is a great long-shot bet for the NFL Draft.
But be sure to cover that wager with Over 23.5, as, barring something unforeseen, you’re looking at a breakeven spot if he’s not picked with the final first-round pick of the evening.
The Giants appear to have a bad poker face when it comes to the NFL Draft. It’s perhaps the worst-kept secret in the league that the Giants love Jordan Tyson, the oft-injured wide receiver from Arizona State.
Tyson is in play at No. 5 overall as well as No. 10 overall, though it is unclear if he will actually fall that far.
Regardless of how you see this playing out, it’s been the talk of the town that the Giants don’t love Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, especially at the No. 5 pick.
That’s why I’m targeting “Giants don’t draft Sonny Styles” at -263 odds at Kalshi. It’s another spot that you can win both wagers or break even, if you manage your bankroll correctly.
None of Kiper, Schrager and Jeremiah have projected the Giants to take Styles, and Todd McShay told Rich Eisen that it is “out there” that the Giants won’t select Styles with a top-five pick.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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