After one of the best cards of the year, the UFC goes head-to-head with a new competitor in the MMA space this week.
Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night will compete head-to-head with Jake Paul’s MVP MMA promotion.
This weekend’s card will feature 13 fights, with just six projected to go the distance, at the time of writing.
The UFC put its best foot forward last weekend at UFC 328’s masterful night of fights, as did I with a nailed winner on Jim Miller by submission at 13/1.
We’ve been highly profitable over the past six weeks and are looking to keep the training rolling this weekend.
A pair of strikers will enter the octagon Saturday night for a light main event this weekend as Arnold Allen faces off against Melquizael Costa.
Allen lost three of his last four fights, while Costa has won six straight in spectacular fashion.
Costa comes in here as a slight underdog, as Allen profiles as an elite striker who has beaten Giga Chikadze, though three losses against title contenders Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway have dampened his outlook going forward.
Still, I like the favorite here and suspect that this fight goes a bit longer than most.
Allen has a granite chin, and I’m not sure Costa is a strong enough wrestler to win minutes either.
Take Allen to win and the fight to start Round 2, as I think he should be able to snag a victory here.
THE PLAY: Allen moneyline parlayed with the fight to start Round 2 (-115, DraftKings)
At featherweight, Dooho Choi faces Daniel Santos in what is surely expected to be a fight filled with violence.
Choi participated in one of the best confrontations ever in 2016 when he battled Cub Swanson, a UFC Hall of Fame (Fight Wing) honoree.
He took a four-year break from the UFC after 2019 for mandatory military service in his native South Korea, but is 2-1 since his return.
Both fighters are very hittable, with Santos defending strikes at just 51 percent and Choi, who has never been known for defense, at a slightly better 56 percent.
Choi is the underdog and I prefer to bet on his experience, but I also don’t love his durability.
Instead, I am backing that the fight doesn’t go the distance, with odds coming in at -160, as four of Choi’s last five fights have ended inside the distance and two of Santos’ last four have also.
THE PLAY: Fight doesn’t go the distance (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz: Wellmaker SGP ML and the fight starts round two (-105, DraftKings)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards: Bukauskas wins by decision (+190, BetMGM)
Timmy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj: Pass
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams: Veretennikov by decision (+425, theScore Bet)
Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan: Pass
Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev: Gantt over takedown props when released
Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti: Vieira by decision (+235, BetRivers)
Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski: Brundage by decision (+860, Fanatics)
Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana: Viana by submission (+640, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule: Luis Gurule by decision (+235, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari: Fight goes the distance -300 for parlays
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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