Curaçao, the smallest country ever to qualify for a World Cup with a population just a tick over 150,000, will get a baptism by fire in its tournament debut Sunday afternoon.
The Blue Wave will take on four-time champions Germany at NRG Stadium in Houston in what is projected to be the most lopsided of any match in the group stage.
Curaçao is 40/1 to win the match, the same odds that Colombia has to win the whole tournament.
A win for the tiny island nation would be the biggest upset in recent World Cup history, easily trumping Saudi Arabia’s shocker over Argentina in 2022.
Saudi Arabia was around 22/1 to win that tilt.
One of the interesting wrinkles with the new format of the World Cup is the game within the game.
Since eight third-place teams will advance from the group stage, goal difference will be critical and that means that there is an incentive for massive underdogs like Curaçao to defend with their lives until the final whistle, even if it’s 3-0.
In fact, keeping Germany to three or even four goals would be a massive win for The Blue Wave, as it would give them some hope of advancing.
So we can expect Dick Advocaat, the oldest manager in the history of the World Cup, to have his team park a big blue bus for the entire match.
Curaçao will need to be disciplined to keep Germany to a respectable scoreline, and that means being very careful when it comes to picking opportunities to counter-attack. Don’t expect the ball to cross into Germany’s half much in this one.
Germany’s manager, Julian Nagelsmann, is not one for playing things close to the vest.
Nagelsmann, who is 40 years Advocaat’s junior, likes his team to be on the front foot and pressing the opposing defense high up the pitch. When they’re on the ball, Germany wants to overload the middle of the field, drawing the defense out of its shape.
Curaçao may be able to relieve that pressure by just hoofing the ball up the pitch and making Die Mannschaft go get it and restart their cycle, but that can only last for so long.
At some point, Germany will overrun Curaçao. While Die Mannschaft may not have the all-world striker that other juggernauts have in their ranks, they do have several players who are elite at timing runs in behind the defense. That’s the perfect way to break a team that is parking the bus.
It’s a brilliant story, Curaçao getting to the World Cup, but the first chapter is not going to be pretty.
The Play: Germany -3.5 goals (-112, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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