Could the state of California actually be turning red?
Early voters in the Golden State have already returned more than 900,000 ballots ahead of the June 2 Primary, showing a massive surge in Republican votes compared to four years ago for the governor’s race.
A post on Saturday from the research firm Political Data (PDI) showed that out of 905,889 ballots that have been returned, 37% were from Republicans, with Republican returns up 11% compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterms.
More shocking is the fact that the data showed 41% of Democrats who have returned their ballots, down 13 points from the same moment in the primary election four years ago.
When comparing the 2022 numbers to 2026 the difference is stark.
41% (-13)-Democrats
37% (+11)- Republicans
22% (+2)-Independents/other
Vice President with PDI Paul Mitchell attributed the early numbers to two different things.
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald]Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” Mitchell told The Post.
And the second, he said that “some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two.”
A post on X from Central Valley Politics celebrated the early voting results mapping out how each county is faring, showing huge swaths of the state blood red for Republicans.
“California Republicans are currently killing it in the early vote, so I decided to map it out,” the post read.
“First map is returns by party. Second map is returns relative to the party registration advantage of each county.”
It added, “we’re punching above our weight in all but two counties so far.”
Digging into the PDI data, it found that the largest turnout has been in the 65 and older group, with 54% ballots returned, with the 18-34 age group having a low turnout of 10% ballots returned.
Mitchell noted that these are the kind of numbers they typically see in a low-voter turnout election year.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away.”
The Democratic field is led by former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have shown more feistiness in recent weeks.
While on the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
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