The Philadelphia Flyers are writing the story of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Philadelphia, which was a long shot to get into the playoffs just three weeks ago, has won the first three games of its best-of-seven series and can not only eliminate its rivals in primetime Saturday, but there’s a chance it can close the book on the Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin-Kris Letang in Pittsburgh for good.
The Flyers are -118 to complete the sweep on “Hockey Night in Canada,” and the crowd in the City of Brotherly Love should be electric.
Philadelphia came into this series on a mission. The Flyers knew they didn’t stand much of a chance in a see-saw series with the Penguins, so they opted to double down on their strength: A stingy defense.
Rick Tocchet’s club has allowed just one goal at 5-on-5 and four overall through the first three games of Round 1, and the stats suggest that this has been a legit shutdown by the Flyers.
They’ve given the Penguins zilch.
Philadelphia has held Pittsburgh — the third-highest scoring team in the league — to just 4.45 expected goals and 18 high-danger scoring chances combined through three games, and that’s despite holding a lead for a large chunk of this series.
There is some concern that Dan Vladar, Philadelphia’s breakout goaltender, will miss Saturday’s game, but the Flyers have been so solid in front of goal that it’s a marginal drop between Vladar and Samuel Ersson.
With nothing to lose, Dan Muse has decided to shake up his top-six, uniting Evgeni Malkin and Yegor Chinakhov, while rolling with Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust on Sidney Crosby’s flanks.
Perhaps Muse’s blender pays off, and I do expect Pittsburgh to come out with its hair on fire Saturday night, but the Flyers have proven adept at weathering storms.
They’ve been stoic in their structure, and until the Penguins prove they can unsettle Philadelphia, there’s no reason to abandon ship.
The Play: Flyers moneyline (-118, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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