Canada and Qatar both came back and earned a 1-1 draw in their opening matches at the World Cup, but they went about it in very different ways.
Canada fell behind Bosnia and Herzegovina, but stayed aggressive throughout the entire match. The Canucks outshot Bosnia, 13-8, held a 1.23 to 0.96 advantage in expected goals (xG), and registered 37 touches in the opponent’s 18-yard box compared to 15 for Bosnia.
The Canucks’ industry was rewarded by a late equalizer from substitute Cyle Larin.
Qatar’s comeback against Switzerland was vintage World Cup underdog. The Maroons sat deep all night and just threw themselves in front of every shot they could. They bided their time, and when they got their chance, they made the most of it.
Switzerland was dominant against Qatar, but they fell into a bit of a trap. The Swiss attempted 26 shots towards the target, created 3.2 xG, and had a 42-8 edge in terms of touches in the opponent’s 18-yard box, but it felt predictable. Qatar dug in.
It will be a lot harder to stick to that script against Canada.
Jesse Marsch is a polarizing manager, but the one thing you can’t question is that he’s got a clear identity. Marsch wants his team to play with pace and purpose, and he wants them to take risks. It won’t be the stoic approach that the Swiss took.
Bosnia elected to sit deep and put a priority on defending deep against Canada, and they had issues keeping up the Canucks. The 1-1 scoreline felt a bit flattering to the behemoths from the Balkans, and they’re a much better side than Qatar.
Canada’s all-action approach should give Qatar fits, and I think the co-hosts win this one going away.
The Play: Canada -1.5 goals (-120, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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