The Montreal Canadiens hit all the right notes in their 6-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres in Game 3.
Not only did the Habs get superb goaltending from Jakub Dobes once again, but they got contributions on the scoresheet from Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, both of whom were in the cooler for most of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The win also forced Lindy Ruff to make a switch in goal. Alex Lyon will take a seat on Tuesday night in Montreal, paving the way for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to return to the blue paint for the first time since Game 2 of the first round.
Luukkonen wasn’t sharp in his limited action against the Boston Bruins, posting an .825 save percentage and a -2.5 Goals Saved Above Expected.
With momentum on their side, the Canadiens are a -144 favorite to take Game 4 on Tuesday.
When similarly-built teams meet in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the series is often decided on the margins. And right now, just about everything is pointing to Montreal.
The Habs are getting the better goaltending, their depth players are proving to be difference-makers, and Martin St. Louis has hit the right buttons from behind the bench.
That said, there is no guarantee that momentum will continue to be on the Habs’ side.
While Montreal has outscored Buffalo, 13-7, in this series, the two teams have split the expected goals down the middle, and the number at 5-on-5 suggests that the Sabres have been just as good as Montreal through three games.
Goaltending has been the difference.
It’s hard to stomach the idea of going with a rusty Luukkonen against the in-form Dobes, but the market movement for Game 4 does seem a tad reactionary.
Montreal closed in the -125/-130 range for Game 3, and now finds itself as a -145 favorite on Tuesday night.
Buffalo is the value play, as the market has piled on the Canadiens thanks to the winds of momentum in Montreal’s sails.
And if you’re looking for a prop, I like the value on Josh Doan to find the back of the net at +340 (FanDuel). Doan has been a revelation for the Sabres in 2025-26 and is fourth on the team with 24 shots on goal in the postseason.
The Play: Sabres moneyline (+120) | Josh Doan to score 1+ goals (+340, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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