Live from Newark, we have UFC 328 fight predictions.
UFC 328 has one of the best fights cards of the year with 13 bouts on tap, including two title fights, and seven are projected to end inside the distance.
Last week we stayed hot with a winning bet on Carlos Prates to win by knockout, though the co-main event read was off after Beneil Dariush lost by knockout for the fourth time in five fights.
We move off our fourth profitable week in a five-week span, with loads of stars and UFC mainstays on the Newark card.
The card begins at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card taking off at 9 p.m. ET.
Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland have trained together. So, for all the buildup here and appearances of bad blood, the reality is that both of these fighters know who is better.
Strickland could look to get into Chimaev’s head, but elite-level grappling is very difficult to beat with mental warfare, as we’ve seen with Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov back in 2018.
Chimaev’s striking isn’t terrible, and I think the questions about his cardio are exaggerated.
Strickland’s best path to victory is jabs and teep-kicks that don’t result in takedowns, though any kick thrown can easily be caught, which could have him stumbling to the canvas.
That’s exactly what Strickland needs to avoid, and his kicks to the body are arguably his best weapon.
If that’s nullified, he’s toast.
I’ll take Chimaev here to snag a victory, as he actually picked this fight as the champion and they have that experience training together — though his -575 odds are not worth a bet.
Instead, I’ll target Chimaev to win and the fight to start Round 2 at -174 odds at FanDuel.
THE PLAY: Chimaev wins, and the fight starts Round 2 (-174, FanDuel)
This flyweight title fight was rescheduled from UFC 327 when Joshua Van had to pull out due to injury, and he will now face Tatsuro Taira in a five-round fight.
Van is a solid striker, though he will be a bit undersized against a strong grappler in Taira.
Taira will be looking to get a takedown, land some ground-and-pound and get a submission.
Most of Van’s winning conditions are rooted in volume striking; he’s one of the best in the world at striking his way to victory.
He rarely knocks fighters out.
Van also has experience dealing with bigger fighters who can grapple, including a win over Brandon Royval in a fight-of-the-year candidate last year.
I certainly like this fight to go the distance, with odds coming in as high as +155.
Van has been to a decision four times in his last six fights, and Taira isn’t the best at doing damage on the feet.
If Van can keep this on his feet, he should win a stand-up battle with ease.
THE PLAYS: Fight goes the distance (+155, theScore Bet) | Van by decision (+480, BetRivers)
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: Chimaev wins, and the fight starts round two (-174, FanDuel)
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira: Fight goes the distance (+155, theScore Bet) | Van by decision (+480, BetRivers)
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta: Waldo Cortes Acosta by decision (+290, FanDuel)
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley: Brady moneyline (-150, BetMGM)
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens: Fight doesn’t go the distance (-104 FanDuel)
Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz: Over .5 rounds (-240, Polymarket)
Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov: Alvarez by KO/TKO (+700, BetRivers)
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Rebecki by KO/TKO (+285, BetRivers)
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon: Miller by submission (13/1, FanDuel)
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio: Kopylov by KO/TKO (+530, FanDuel)
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis: Sabatini by decision (+175, DraftKings)
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos: Susurkaev by submission (+500, FanDuel)
Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa: Fight ends by submission (either fighter to win by submission): (+450, BetRivers)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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