Arsenal held serve against Fulham on Saturday, putting pressure on Manchester City to come up with three points in Merseyside on Monday afternoon.
The Gunners’ win put them on 76 points after 35 matches played, six ahead of City, who have played two fewer games. Anything short of a victory for Manchester City in this match will be a devastating blow to their hopes of reclaiming the Premier League trophy.
The bookmakers aren’t giving Everton much of a chance to play spoiler, as Pep Guardiola’s side is a -210 favorite on the road.
A few weeks ago, the Toffees would have been a trendy upset pick in this spot, but a sluggish run of form has all but ended Everton’s hopes of gatecrashing the top six and pushing for meaningful European football next season.
That’s turned this match into a bit of a dead rubber for the hosts, which is part of the reason why the market is so down on Everton’s chances of springing an upset against the title-challengers on Monday.
Another reason is that Everton has really struggled defensively of late.
The Toffees have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five outings, and they’ve surrendered 5.5 expected goals in their last three contests.
Those aren’t awful numbers, but against an offensive powerhouse like Manchester City, Everton will need to be much stingier to have a hope. Especially when you consider the form that City is carrying into this match.
The Cityzens have scored six goals in their last three matches, but they’ve created close to 8.5 xG, including 2.6 against Arsenal a couple of weeks back.
Everton’s defensive form, City’s offensive rhythm, and the fact that the Cityzens need to pad their goal difference to win the tie-breaker with Arsenal in the title race all lead me to a bet on the Over 3.5 goals at +162.
The Play: Over 3.5 goals (+162, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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