The Knicks’ odds to win the NBA Finals against either the Thunder or Spurs are shocking – and this might be a buy-now spot.
Jalen Brunson’s squad has already been pegged as massive underdogs to win the 2026 NBA Finals, regardless of which Western foe meets them come June.
DraftKings lists the Knicks as +185 underdogs in a hypothetical matchup with the Spurs and +225 underdogs against the Thunder.
For all the bravado those two very talented teams boast throughout their rosters, there are a few reasons the opponent won’t matter – the Knicks can and will beat either of them.
Regardless of whether it’s the big bad Thunder or Victor Wembanyama-led Spurs, there’s a real advantage for the Knicks when it comes to defending ball-handlers.
The Spurs have found success guarding the Thunder in the halfcourt — as soon as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander crosses the halfcourt line, they blitz him with a double team, forcing someone else who is strong-handing the ball to set up their offense.
Ajay Mitchell has become that player for Oklahoma City, but he’s out with a calf strain, and his absence from the court screams trouble for their offense for as long as he’s out.
The same injury problems exist for the Spurs, who have guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper banged up.
And who knows who will be healthy by the end of this grueling Western Conference Finals?
Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and perhaps even Jose Alvarado could be useful in a series against the Thunder, and should be even better at full-court defense than the Spurs are with Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Fox, and Harper.
Last year, the Knicks learned from the Pacers how to give their role players critical minutes in moments like these.
The Pacers made the Thunder’s lives hell by playing full-court, hard-nosed defense with all 11 players that wore Oklahoma City down nearly into submission – even with Tyrese Haliburton off the floor with a torn Achilles in Game 7.
The Knicks’ defensive unit profiles even better than the Pacers around this time last year.
Last season, the Pacers’ defense allowed opponents to shoot 44.8 percent from the field during their playoff run, while the Knicks, to this point, are holding opponents to 43.7 percent from the field.
The Knicks have a much better defensive rating (103.5) than that Pacers squad (112.7) did entering the NBA Finals.
The Knicks also have a better offensive rating (123.3) than the Pacers did entering their NBA Finals matchup against the Thunder (117.7).
The common theory that counters these data points is obvious, but maybe not as clear as it seemed a few years ago.
Is the Eastern Conference just worse than the Western Conference?.
The data doesn’t really support that much right now.
The Western Conference led the way this year with a 220-232 record against the East, though that’s much closer than in years past.
The Eastern Conference also outplayed the Western Conference in the second half with a 129-112 record after Jan. 19.
ESPN reported that since 1999-2000 (since Michael Jordan retired), the Eastern Conference has had a better interconference record in just three of 26 seasons, with this year being the closest it has been since 2022-2023, and some real stinkers in between.
Including a pitiful 191-261 record in 2023-24 and a 203-232 record last year.
The gap has closed considerably this year.
In 2026, the Eastern Conference had four of the best teams in overall net rating in the top eight, led by the Celtics (two), Pistons (three), Knicks (five), and Cavaliers (eighth).
The Knicks made the Cavaliers look silly, and the Celtics blew a 3-1 lead to the 76ers, but maybe those on the receiving end shouldn’t be looked down on as much.
After all, the Eastern Conference had four teams with more than 50 wins while the Western Conference had five.
Does anyone think the Lakers wouldn’t have been swept by the Knicks if they played in the second round as the Thunder did?
The Pacers took the Thunder to a brutal seven-game series and were well on their way to an NBA Finals win if Tyrese Haliburton stayed healthy.
For my money, it’s all about the Knicks show; they’ll be partying down the Canyon of Heroes and lower Manhattan in late June.
So bring on the Wembanyama or Gilgeious-Alexander’s of the world, they will be running into a brick wall.
PREDICTION: Knicks win the NBA Finals (+225, BetMGM)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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