The mission is straightforward for DR Congo.
A win against Uzbekistan on Saturday night puts Les Leopards into the Round of 32, while anything short of three points sends them packing.
The odds are in DR Congo’s favor, as they’re -140 to get all three points in Atlanta on Saturday evening.
Uzbekistan’s debut World Cup has been a sour experience, as the White Wolves have lost to Colombia and Portugal by a combined score of 8-1.
DR Congo has played with the same identity in its first two matches. In a 1-1 draw against Portugal, Les Leopards were defensively disciplined, but they were a real menace in transition. They were such a threat that the Portuguese took their foot off the pedal and played scared. It was a masterclass.
Colombia was able to edge DR Congo, 1-0, but Los Cafeteros were hardly dominant. They created just 0.98 expected goals against Les Leopards and benefited from a good bounce to score their only goal.
Those performances were heroic, but the challenge will be very different for DR Congo against Uzbekistan. Can Les Leopards change their spots and play a more attacking style?
I think the answer to that question is yes, not just because they have some serious playmakers in their ranks, but also because their opponent has been an absolute mess defensively in this tournament, albeit against two really strong teams in Colombia and Portugal.
In qualifying, Uzbekistan was a well-organized outfit that embraced a physical style, but they’ve been pulled out of their shape time and again in their first two matches. If you stretch the White Wolves, you mitigate their biggest asset, which is their strength and size.
DR Congo is full of pace and creativity, and they’ve got two terrific finishers in Cedric Bakambu and Yoane Wissa that should occupy Uzbekistan’s centerbacks. Their presence, combined with DR Congo’s pace on the flanks, should cause all sorts of problems for the White Wolves.
The moneyline is a bit steep, but Les Leopards should have a field day in this one.
The Play: DR Congo moneyline (-140, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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