In most years, the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby profile as two very different races.
The Derby is almost always about the sum of its parts. With a 20-horse field and a 150,000-capacity crowd, the spectacle is the star.
The script used to flip for the Preakness.
Up until recently, the Preakness was all about one horse: The winner of the Kentucky Derby. The rest of the field, the crowd, and the pageantry were just the supporting cast.
That was also true of how the Preakness was bet. Most of the money would pile in on the Derby champion, setting the middle jewel of the Triple Crown as a “Favorite vs. the Field” scenario.
Not anymore.
For the second year in a row, the winner of the Kentucky Derby has opted to skip the Preakness, knocking some of the luster off the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
The upshot is that the absence of Golden Tempo and all the other juggernauts from the Derby has opened up the Preakness and, in a twist, given it more of a Kentucky Derby feel.
There are five horses between 9/2 and 6-1 on the morning line, but Taj Mahal ticks the most relevant boxes of that cohort.
The local product is 3-for-3 in his career, with all three victories coming over the surface at Laurel Park. He’s also improving, with his latest win coming in a laugher at the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 18.
As long as he doesn’t get into a head-to-head with Napoleon Solo for the early lead, I like Taj Mahal’s chances of having enough in the tank to earn his fourth win in four tries.
Talkin could be a trendy long-shot pick Saturday, and it’s not too hard to see why.
For one, he’s getting a huge jockey upgrade with Irad Ortiz Jr. hopping aboard for the Preakness.
Secondly, he’s got the right profile for the pace scenario
A hot pace is expected for the headliner at Laurel Park on Saturday, and Talkin is going to want none of that, instead opting to sit back and hopefully picking up the pieces if things melt down.
These are two very different horses, but both of them could benefit from the same kind of race.
Napoleon Solo is perhaps the likeliest horse to win this race in a gate-to-wire effort.
He put together one of the best efforts of any 2-year-old in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last year, but a minor injury slowed his momentum on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Fully fit and training well, Napoleon Solo may have enough in the tank to get the distance.
While Napoleon Solo will want to get up front and stay there, Bull by the Horns’ best path to hit the board is to mop up the pieces.
And if we get the quick pace everybody is projecting for this race, there is every chance that Bull by the Horns is passing tiring horses coming down the stretch and adding some serious value to your tickets.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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