California’s controversial billionaire tax measure has secured enough signatures and qualified to appear on the November ballot, according to the state’s secretary of state.

The measure — championed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) — would levy a one-time 5% tax on the state’s ultra-rich whose assets exceed $1 billion.

If approved by voters in November, the measure would be the first of its kind in the country. It appears to have a viable path to passage, with one poll indicating that 54% of likely voters support the tax.

The results will be certified on June 25 alongside other election outcomes finalizing the November ballot. That means state leaders, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have about a week to try to negotiate the measure off the ballot and strike a deal with SEIU-UHW, which represents more than 120,000 healthcare workers, patients and consumers across California.

The group says the tax is needed to help close an estimated $100 billion healthcare funding gap created by recent federal spending cuts.

Under California law, the proponents of a citizen-initiated ballot measure have the right to withdraw their proposal even after it has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Thanks to a 2014 law, proponents of state statutes, constitutional amendments and veto referendums can officially pull their measure off the ballot as long as they do so at least 131 days before the general election.

Almost every time a qualified measure is removed from the ballot, it is because of a legislative compromise.

California’s proposed billionaire tax has awakened Silicon Valley giants. Wealthy tech moguls and crypto billionaires are flooding state politics with cash, backing rival ballot measures designed to kneecap the tax before it can take effect.

The high-stakes battle has transformed a tax fight into a broader showdown over who really calls the shots in Sacramento: organized labor or the billionaire class.

Leading the charge against the tax are some of California’s wealthiest tech figures, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin and crypto billionaire Chris Larsen, who have poured millions into committees backing a trio of rival ballot measures.

The proposals would make it far harder for Sacramento to impose retroactive taxes, tighten restrictions on how new tax revenue can be spent, and create legal hurdles that could undermine the billionaire tax even if voters approve it. Together, the measures form a coordinated effort to blunt one of the most ambitious wealth-tax proposals ever put before California voters.

Building a Better California, a well-funded coalition backed by tech and business interests, has thrown its weight behind competing ballot measures that could create legal and political obstacles for the billionaire tax if both make it to voters.

Earlier this year, one of the rival measures backed by the coalition secured enough signatures for a spot on the November ballot, raising the prospect of a head-to-head showdown with the billionaire tax.

The California Post has reached out to the coalition for comment, along with Newsom’s office. The Post has also reached out to Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton and Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra, both of whom oppose the tax and could very well face its consequences if elected governor, for comment.

Meanwhile, prediction markets favor the measure failing.

After briefly hitting a 61% chance of passage in January, the billionaire tax’s odds have fallen to 18% as of Wednesday morning, down from 40% just a week earlier on June 11.

The move marks a dramatic reversal on Polymarket, where traders are now pricing in sharply diminished odds of the measure becoming law as the 2026 election approaches and opposition spending intensifies

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