Goal-scoring bonanzas and historic comebacks have defined this Stanley Cup Final.
Maybe we didn’t expect four straight cashes on the Over between the two most territorial and puck-disciplined teams in hockey, but we did expect a neck-and-neck battle.
And that’s exactly what we’ve gotten between Carolina and Vegas: both clubs are squared with 51 high-danger scoring chances apiece, while the Hurricanes have barely edged the Golden Knights in expected goals 12.9 to 12.78.
The series shifts back to Raleigh for Game 5 on Thursday and the Hurricanes’ best available moneyline price across the market is -152. Their power play has been substantially more functional than Vegas,’ and the 5-on-5 metrics say they’ve owned the puck. Still, you might as well place your chips on red or black at the roulette wheel in picking a winner.
Carolina’s 4-for-11 clip with the man advantage is thanks to their top forwards living up to their roles. Jordan Staal’s leadership has been at the forefront of that effort with two of those scores; his five total leads the series.
The Knights have the more balanced offense, however, with four names in the top-five scorers (including Brett Howden!). Odds-on favorite for the Conn Smythe Mitch Marner is leading the series and playoffs with eight and 29 points, respectively. In fact, they’ve outscored the Hurricanes 9-1 in the second period.
Carter Hart isn’t providing the same goaltending that led Vegas to the Final; he’s regressed to an .861 save percentage and minus-3.99 goals saved above expected. In the other net, Carolina’s new golden boy in Brandon Bussi may have won Game 4, but he did it while allowing three goals on 21 shots.
It’s hard to trust either of them since both teams have been allergic to holding multi-goal leads. At least three unanswered goals have been scored in four instances, so let’s expect more chaos.
THE PLAY: Over 6 goals (-115, Caesars)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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