We’re almost there — summertime.
Grilling in the backyard, lounging at the pool, #roseallday. Pretty soon we won’t have a care in the world.
But not Hollywood! For Tinseltown, the next three months mean that a series of frightening existential questions will be posed on a near weekly basis.
This is by far the most massive movie summer — in theory, anyway — since 2019, with “Star Wars,” Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Marvel, DC, Pixar and a Disney live-action flick all jockeying for position.
There’s a lot of competition, and everybody can’t come out on top. By Labor Day we’ll know who the winners were and who’s crying under their Los Angeles desks.
Here’s what will have Hollywood really sweating as the weather heats up.
Remember in 2020 when insane Lucasfilm announced a whopping 10 new “Star Wars” TV series for Disney+?
The studio, which Disney bought for $4.05 billion in 2012, was riding high. The Daisy Ridley sequel trilogy, whatever you think of it, did big box office. “Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens” remains the highest-grossing domestic release ever. And the Disney+ app had just launched to huge fanfare.
They were dead certain the Skywalker sensation would never die down.
Well — help me, Obi Wan Kenobi! — it did.
Many of those planned projects were scrapped and the galaxy far, far away has struggled to generate significant buzz since. Only now comes the first “Star Wars” wide-release movie in seven years, “The Mandalorian and Grogu.”
Will it be a lightsaber in the darkness? A TV spinoff that hits theaters Memorial Day weekend, the Pedro Pascal flick was made for the relatively low cost of $166.4 million. Smart and sensible, like a Jedi.
So, it should easily turn a profit. Baby Yoda is cute. But it’s hard to picture any standalone “Star Wars” movie ever topping $1 billion. The franchise is damaged.
Disney flew too close to the sun. And the other sun.
Yes, he’s the highest-grossing director of all time. And true, he’s the father of the summer blockbuster, who gave us “E.T.,” “Jaws,” “Jurassic Park” and “Indiana Jones.”
But Spielberg’s last box-office success was “Ready Player One” eight long years ago.
After that, his “West Side Story” was a COVID-era flop. And his semi-autobiographical drama “The Fabelmans” got plenty of Oscar nominations, but few butts in seats.
Will Steven get his groove back?
One promising factor is that his new “Disclosure Day,” an original film out June 12, reunites Spielberg with some of his most successful collaborators: aliens.
He hasn’t palled around with martians since “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” way back in 2008.
I suspect “Disclosure Day” will return to pure popcorn, not prestige. And as a bonus it stars the popular Emily Blunt, who scored a mega-hit this spring with “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Spielberg should have a good June. But there’s always chaos theory.
Key to understanding what the next 12 weeks means for flatlining superhero movies is to recognize that Sony and Marvel’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (July 31) has got nothing to do with it.
That one’s a sure thing. Since 2002’s “Spider-Man” with Tobey Maguire, every Spidey flick has been a huge hit. Peter Parker will be rolling in the Benjamins as usual.
Much more indicative (and worrisome) is Warner Bros. and DC’s “Supergirl,” starring Milly Alcock from “House of the Dragon.”
Even though she showed up briefly at the end of last year’s “Superman” — which did OK, but just OK — most audiences don’t know who Supergirl is. I just learned she’s Superman’s cousin. How nice for them.
Demonstrably, there’s not much of an appetite for non-tentpole heroes anymore. Marvel’s “Thunderbolts,” “The Marvels” and “Eternals” all embarrassingly flopped. Even the more heavyweight “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Fantastic Four: First Steps” struggled.
“Supergirl” (June 26) probably suffers the same fate as “First Steps” — decent, not disaster — and the flying-Spandex genre’s decline continues apace.
Yes.
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