Novak Djokovic came agonizingly close to capturing his 25th Grand Slam at the Australian Open. The Serb took the first set of the final against Carlos Alcaraz, but the Spaniard took over from there, dispatching Djokovic to become the youngest player in history to complete the career grand slam.
Djokovic, as is customary these days, has barely played any tennis between the Australian Open and Roland Garros, and he is coming off a shocking loss to Dino Prizmic at the Rome Masters. However, he’s still priced as the third favorite to win the French Open behind Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev.
Although Djokovic’s draw isn’t that daunting, he does have a tricky matchup in Round 1 against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
For most seeded players, drawing Mpetshi Perricard would be a stroke of bad luck. The 22-year-old has one of the game’s most powerful serves, and, as a Frenchman, he will have plenty of support from the patrons. He’d have more than a puncher’s chance against plenty of higher-ranked players at Roland Garros.
But this matchup is a nightmare for the 6-foot-8 native of Lyon.
When he’s clicking, Mpetshi Perricard can serve his way out of trouble and use his best weapon to dictate the terms of a match. But the World No. 80 has yet to round out the rest of his game. If he isn’t able to serve through you, Mpetshi Perricard is vulnerable.
Djokovic has feasted on these kinds of one-note players throughout his career, and even though he’s lost a step, his ability to defend against elite serves has not left him.
This stylistic matchup should suit Djokovic, as the last thing Mpetshi Perricard will want is to engage the 39-year-old in long rallies.
Unless Djokovic is truly off his game, it’s hard to see how Mpetshi Perricard puts up much of a fight in this contest.
Bet on it to end quickly.
The Play: Djokovic to win 3-0 (-105, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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