It’s all to play for between Paraguay and Australia on Thursday night.
Both teams are on three points after two matches in Group D, but Australia has the tiebreaker based on its superior goal difference.
A draw would essentially guarantee both teams would qualify for the knockout stage, but both sides will have their eyes on finishing runner-up, as the third-place team has a good chance to land France as its opponent in the Round of 32.
This is a tricky one to handicap because both of these teams are most comfortable out of possession and playing a counter-attacking style of soccer.
They each showed this against the same opponent in Turkey.
Australia sat deep and frustrated the Crescent-Stars, before hitting them twice in transition in a clinical 2-0 win, and then Paraguay scored early and defended with its life in a 1-0 victory against Turkey.
While their strengths showed against Turkey, their flaws were exposed against the United States.
Unlike Turkey’s patient attack, Team USA was fluid and drew both Australia and Paraguay out of their defensive shapes. Australia lost to the Yanks, 2-0, while Paraguay was defeated, 4-1.
Neither Australia nor Paraguay boasts the attacking talent that Team USA has in its ranks, but there are some ballers in this matchup. Julio Enciso is the magic man for La Albirroja, while speedster Nestory Irankunda is the difference-maker for the Aussies.
Where the similarities start to end is that one of these teams can adapt to a stalemate more than the other. While the Aussies are dependent on getting their chances in transition, Paraguay can do damage in a less fluid game, which is what we can expect from Thursday’s contest.
These two sides already embrace physicality and have no issue hacking away, and that will only get amplified given the stakes of this contest. In other words, this will look a lot like a CONMEBOL qualifier or a Copa America match. That’s music to Paraguay’s ears.
In a see-saw match, you’d fancy Australia’s chances here, but I doubt that this game will have any flow to it, and that gives the South Americans an advantage.
The Play: Paraguay moneyline (+190, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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