The NFL will always be a quarterback league, but this is not expected to be a quarterback-heavy draft in the first round.
While other positions like wide receiver and offensive line have significant depth in the first round, the quarterback position doesn’t have a ton of intrigue.
Fernando Mendoza is essentially a lock to end up going No. 1 overall with -50000 odds to land in Las Vegas with the Raiders.
After that, things get very interesting for the next quarterback on every draftnik’s big board, Ty Simpson.
The Alabama product is -2500 to be the second quarterback off the board at DraftKings, but where he lands and how soon he gets taken is fluid.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| QBs selected in Round 1 | Over 1.5 (-165) / Under 1.5 (+125) |
| Second QB selected | Ty Simpson (-2500) |
| Ty Simpson draft position | Over 24.5 (-270) / Under (+195) |
| Ty Simpson drafted in Round 1 | -200 |
| Team to draft Ty Simpson | Cardinals (-200) |
| Team to draft Carson Beck | Dolphins (+300) |
| Carson Beck drafted in Round 1 | 70/1 |
Simpson has been mocked to the Cardinals late in the first round by several ESPN draft experts.
Mel Kiper Jr. expects the Cardinals to move up to No. 30 in a trade to take Simpson, Peter Schrager thinks the Cardinals move the No. 32 via trade to grab him and Jordan Reid projects the Cardinals to draft the ex-Crimson Tide star with the 34th pick.
The Ringer’s Todd McShay has Simpson mocked to the Rams with the 13th pic, but tempered his prediction a bit. All in all, it gives Simpson an interesting range of potential landing spots.
Miami’s Carson Beck is not expected to hear his name on Day 1 of the draft, which is evident in his 70/1 odds to be picked in the first round.
He is still drawing interest in prediction markets, though. Kalshi users have bumped up his chances to be the third quarterback taken in the draft over the past two days.
Beck had an 11 percent chance on the prediction platform Monday to be the third quarterback, but that number shot up to 64 percent Tuesday and settled at 31 percent Wednesday morning.
Beck trails Garrett Nussmeier, who has a 40 percent chance to be the third signal caller off the board, but his rapid rise is notable.
DraftKings has the Dolphins (+300) as the favorite to pick Beck. The Fins signed former Packers backup Malik Willis in free agency and have Quinn Ewers on the roster, but Beck has a the South Florida connection after playing for the Hurricanes.
The Steelers aren’t too far behind with +330 odds to draft Beck.
Pittsburgh is waiting for a decision from Aaron Rodgers on his future, and has Mason Rudolph and Will Howard as the only quarterbacks on its roster.
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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