Erling Haaland made quite a splash in his World Cup debut.
The best striker on the planet scored twice, leading Norway to a fuss-free win over Iraq.
The 25-year-old now sets his sights on Senegal, which had a lot to regret after their 3-1 loss to France in their first match.
Norway is a +130 favorite on the three-way moneyline for this tilt in the Meadowlands, while Senegal is +200. The draw, which would not be the worst result for either side, is +250.
It had been 28 years since Norway was in a World Cup, and they couldn’t have had a better red carpet to welcome them back. With all due respect to Iraq, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better opponent for the Vikings to face in a high-pressure situation.
It took a little while for Norway to unlock the Iraqi defense, but once they did, it was open season. Haaland was dominant, and the Vikings created over 2.5 expected goals against an overwhelmed defense.
Senegal’s defense should provide plenty more resistance on Monday evening.
The cold reality of soccer, and any sport, is that box scores are often misleading. On paper, Senegal’s 3-1 loss to France looks disappointing. The Lions of Teranga did come unfurled in the second half against Les Bleus, but they were incredibly unfortunate not to be at least one goal ahead at halftime.
Senegal hit a post and wasted several other terrific opportunities in the first 45 minutes, and a team like France will make you pay if you don’t punish them when you have the chance.
That’s exactly what happened as Kylian Mbappe took over the second half, and Senegal just ran out of steam.
The Lions of Teranga will also be kicking themselves for allowing a late goal to Mbappe, which put their goal difference at minus-2 heading into this tricky tilt with Norway.
Most models project that you’ll need 3 points and a minus-1 goal difference to get through to the Round of 32 as one of the eight best third-place teams, so Senegal has some ground to make up if it wants to keep its World Cup hopes alive. At the very worst, they can’t afford to lose this match by more than one goal, or else they’ll need to make serious hay against Iraq in their final match.
On paper, Senegal should be well-suited to keep Haaland and this dynamic Norwegian attack in check. They’ve got a strong center-back partnership with Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhate, and Idrisse Gana Gueye is elite at disrupting things in the midfield. That was all on display in the first half against France, but they became unglued thanks to the magic of Mbappe in the second.
And it’s not just the defense that makes Senegal a real threat to pull the upset on Monday. Pape Thiaw has an abundance of attacking options that should put Norway’s defense, considered its Achilles’ Heel, under real threat. Sadio Mane, Iliman Ndiaye, Pape Sarr, and Nico Jackson are miles and miles better than anything Iraq threw at the Vikings, who at times looked a little wobbly against the Lions of Mesopotamia.
Haaland and Norway earned plenty of headlines with their win against Iraq, but this is a terrific buy-low, sell-high spot. Senegal are a live underdog to derail the Norway hype train on Monday.
The Pick: Senegal ML (+200, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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