Getting through to the knockout stage is priority No. 1 for Mexico, but El Tri will know it needs to win Group A if it wants to keep its home-field advantage into the Round of 32.
If Mexico tops the group, it will play a third-place finisher at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on July 1. If they win that match, they’ll play at the same venue in the following round. That would be worth its weight in gold.
If Mexico fails to win the group, they’ll take on the second-place finisher in Group B in Los Angeles.
A victory over South Korea on Thursday would put El Tri in a commanding position to win Group A.
Mexico barely put a foot wrong in the World Cup curtain-raiser against South Africa. The result, a 2-0 win for El Tri, never felt threatened, as South Africa was all out of sorts.
It was the classic sporting conundrum: Was Mexico that good? Or was South Africa just miles off it that day?
The answer was probably in the middle, but Javier Aguirre’s side deserves plenty of credit for the way it handled the pressure of opening a home World Cup in front of a massive audience.
South Korea’s 2-1 victory over Czechia on Matchday 1 was less comprehensive than Mexico’s, but it was quite impressive. The Taeguk Warriors played with tactical aggression and were able to overrun the Czechs with their pace and pressure.
South Korea never panicked after going down 1-0, and were fully deserving of the result. They outshot Czechia 15-7, had 12 more touches in the opposition’s 18-yard box, and won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.3 to 0.8.
Mexico should be able to cope with South Korea’s relentlessness better than the Czechs did, but they aren’t particularly built to knock the ball around quickly to beat a press, and could be prone to turning the ball over in bad areas.
El Tri does have a significant advantage in terms of physicality, however. A rugged side that is happy to get stuck in, Mexico will have no issue turning this into a real tussle to slow the pace. They also have a clinical scoring threat, Raul Jimenez, who is as good with his head in front of goal as he is with his feet. That’s a huge plus against South Korea.
Both sides have tactical edges going forward and red flags to address on defense. There should be goals in this tilt.
The Play: Both teams to score — Yes (+106, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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