You won’t find many matches with tighter odds in the World Cup group stage than what the bookies are serving up for Ecuador vs. Ivory Coast on Sunday night in Philadelphia.
Ecuador, a trendy dark horse selection in this 48-team field, is +140 to win the match on the three-way moneyline, the draw is at +180, and the Ivory Coast is +260 to nab the three points.
It is quite rare to see the draw priced under +200, but this match has all the makings of a rock fight, so it’s no wonder that early money pushed that price down.
Ecuador is known for its dogged defensive personality and physical brand of soccer, but there is a lot more to this team than just a rugged South American style of play.
La Tri are coached by Sebastián Beccacece, a disciple of Marcelo Bielsa, and deploy a system that has all the Bielsa hallmarks. They will apply an all-action press high up the pitch and look to punish you in transition.
Ecuador has a tailor-made central midfielder for this style in Moises Caicedo. One of the best in the world at managing the middle of the park, Caicedo is a master at winning the ball, picking out a quick pass, and springing counterattacks before the opponent knows what hits them.
Caicedo won’t have it easy, however, as he’ll be dealing with Franck Kessie, who is a splendid central midfielder in his own right.
While Caicedo and Kessie are the proverbial straws that stir their respective drinks, they both have a strong supporting cast. Ecuador can cause trouble by outflanking you with Piero Hincapie, but they also have an experienced fox-in-the-box, with the ageless Enner Valencia.
Les Elephants also have a wealth of attacking options, headlined by Nicolas Pépé, Amad Diallo, and Yan Diomandé. Those three, plus youngster Christ Inao, have the potential to overrun any defense, and they could enjoy the space that comes behind Ecuador’s high press.
The betting market seems convinced that this will be a slog, but there’s a lot of punch on these rosters, and Ecuador’s high press could create some ideal scoring conditions.
The Play: Over 2.5 (+196, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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