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California governor's race on a knife edge as dark horse surges and ballots hit mailboxes
Titus Wu · 2026-05-05 · via New York Post

The California gubernatorial race is gearing up with more Democrat-on-Democrat onslaught as the competition enters into a critical final stretch, according to a new poll released Monday.

The biggest target of the field of six Democratic candidates is former Health and Human Services chief Xavier Becerra, who has surged into the lead at 18% despite a barrage of ads directed at him.

Becerra is tied for first with Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, according to the poll funded by the California Democratic Party. The poll was conducted April 30 to May 2.

Xavier Becerra speaking at the California gubernatorial debate.

Candidate for Governor of California Xavier Becerra. REUTERS

The “results indicate progress towards ensuring a strong Democrat is elected the next Governor of California,” the party said on social media.

The surge of Becerra — who at the beginning of the election was mired in the single digits — was also reflected in another recent poll conducted late April.

His surge has diminished fears from Democrats that Hilton and the other Republican candidate, county sheriff Chad Bianco, would take the top two spots of the primary and lock Democrats out.

Steve Hilton speaking at the California gubernatorial debate.

Candidate for Governor of California Steve Hilton. REUTERS

Under California’s system, the top two vote getters advance to the general election regardless of political party.

Becerra has seen allies of Gov. Gavin Newsom coalesce around his candidacy during this final stretch of the race.

The new dynamic comes as mail-in ballots were sent to mailboxes across the state on Monday. Voters will be mailing their ballots in until the June 2 election date, making it even more critical for candidates to sway voters now.

Notably, the new poll suggests voters are tuning into the race as the finish line nears. Undecided voters have dropped from 24% in March to 14%.

Bianco is sitting at third with 14% of the vote, according to the poll.

Gavin Newsom at the 33rd Annual White House Correspondents' Garden Brunch.

Gavin Newsom has yet to officially endorse a candidate. Nathan Posner/Shutterstock

Progressive billionaire Tom Steyer follows with 12% of the vote, as he tries to claw back from Becerra the frontrunner lead he temporarily had after Congressman Eric Swalwell suspended his bid from sexual misconduct allegations.

Steyer has tacked himself into the far-left lane of the race, portraying Becerra as the “establishment” candidate. Notably, he’s recently been aiming many of his attacks on Becerra.

Former congresswoman Katie Porter got 8% while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan polled at 7%. Two other candidates only ended up with 2% or less of the surveyed voters.