If there’s anything we’ve learned from the Ducks through the early stages of these Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s that they are, in fact, mighty.
That was evident in their first-round series, dismantling the back-to-back reigning Western Conference champions in the Oilers.
In Game 1 of their second-round series, they outshot the Golden Knights 34-22 despite falling 3-1.
At 5-on-5, the Ducks controlled the play, generating 12 high-danger chances to Vegas’ six and holding a 2.76-1.36 edge in expected goals.
Yet, despite commanding the numbers and passing the eye test, the Knights are favored by prices as high as -165 on the moneyline for Wednesday’s sequel at T-Mobile Arena. A lot of this has to do with home-ice advantage, which historically has been overvalued in the playoffs
In all situations, the Ducks held territorial control and chance quality over the Knights. They outprojected Vegas 3.62 to 3.08 in expected goals, which reinforces the fact that Anaheim’s sustained pressure is repeatable. In other words, if you replay that game under similar conditions, Anaheim probably scores more than once.
Whether that was a passed-up empty net from Jackson LaCombe and a controversial icing sequence that led to Vegas’s go-ahead goal, we can chalk the loss up to a few isolated mistakes.
Vegas relied on timely scoring and strong goaltending from Carter Hart. Hart’s 0.9 Goals Saved Above Expected suggests there is regression, and Anaheim’s speed through the neutral zone and ability to attack off the rush gave Vegas problems.
Vegas players and coaches openly admitted they struggled to contain that pace, and while yes, adjustments are expected, solving speed mismatches mid-series is easier said than done.
Special teams add another layer of optimism. The Ducks’ power play was lethal in Round 1 (50 percent), but went 0-for-4 in Game 1. If Anaheim converts even once on the man advantage, the entire complexion of Game 2 can shift.
The Ducks swept the season series with three 4-3 victories. At plus-money, you can’t beat the bargain on Anaheim to even this series.
THE PLAY: Ducks (+144, Kalshi)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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