The NBA Playoffs continue on Monday with the Timberwolves and Nuggets facing off in a crucial Game 5 out West, with Minnesota leading the series 3-1.
Things got chippy in the final seconds of Game 4, leading to the ejections of Nikola Jokic and Wolves forward Julius Randle. The ending only slightly overshadowed Ayo Dosumu’s franchise-record 43 points off the bench, which helped Minnesota secure a 112-96 victory.
The Wolves enter Game 5 looking to close things out, but significant injuries to their starting backcourt of Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo leave them as 10.5-point underdogs on the road in Denver.
Rudy Gobert has become an X-factor, limiting Jokic’s playmaking and making it harder for the three-time MVP to finish at the basket.
Jokic and the Nuggets offense have failed to reach 100 points in consecutive games, largely because of Minnesota’s physical defense.
Minnesota faces a tough challenge without Edwards and DiVincenzo, two-way players who bring it on both sides of the court.
Oddsmakers are not very confident in the ability of Dosumu, Mike Conley, or Bones Hyland to be reliable replacements, as the Timberwolves are listed at only -166 to win the series on FanDuel.
There is also the notion that the Nuggets aren’t entirely done, given they were down 1-3 twice in the 2020 postseason and clawed back to win both series in the bubble.
Denver’s +140 odds to take the series leave some room for history to potentially repeat itself.
This sets the stage for the Nuggets’ Robin, Jamal Murray, who is in a prime position to exploit the Timberwolves’ undermanned backcourt depth.
Although Jaden McDaniels has effectively guarded him for most of this series, it hasn’t derailed the All-Star’s production. Murray is currently averaging 26.8 points, 5.8 assists, and five rebounds during the playoffs, scoring 30 points in three of four games.
His shooting percentages—37% from the field and 26.5% from beyond the arc—are subpar, but he’s made up for it at the free-throw line, converting 31-of-32 attempts.
If Wolves head coach Chris Finch continues to force the ball out of Jokic’s hands, Murray will have ample opportunities to score and facilitate.
Given his reputation for streaky shooting, I anticipate he will take a more aggressive approach in this must-win game for the Nuggets, which should help them extend the series.
The Play: Jamal Murray Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125, BetMGM Sportsbook)
Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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