One of the most anticipated moments in the history of U.S. Soccer takes place on Friday night.
The United States Men’s National Team begins its World Cup adventure with a 9 p.m. ET kickoff against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
There’s always added pressure on the host countries in a World Cup, but the heat has been especially turned up on the Yanks, given that they have been building towards, and the country has been looking forward to, this moment for the better part of a decade.
Friday’s tilt with La Albirroja will go a long way in determining whether or not Team USA meets this massive moment.
The United States enters this match in an unfamiliar position. Not only are they a -110 favorite to win the game, but they’re also the team to beat in Group D, per the bookies. The Yanks are +125 to top the set, putting them ahead of Turkey (+190), Paraguay (+410), and Australia (+800).
This is the first time that the United States has entered a World Cup as the betting favorite to win its group.
There is almost certainly a hometown tax being applied to the pricing of the Yanks in the betting market, since they will undoubtedly attract most of the action in this match and group, but that doesn’t mean that Mauricio Pochettino’s side doesn’t deserve to be the favorites among this quartet.
The strength of the American side is its versatility in attack. Christian Pulisic is the game-breaker, but he’s got more support than he’s ever had while playing for his home country. Folarin Balogun gives the Yanks a real threat at striker, while Malik Tillman, Tim Weah, Haji Wright, and Ricardo Pepi give Pochettino plenty of options to throw different looks at opposing defenses.
The middle of the pitch is also well taken care of for the Americans with the battery of Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie. Adams is a relentless ball-winner and is a capable tempo-setter, while McKennie is a Swiss Army Knife and is coming off a terrific season for Juventus.
Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest will provide the width for the Stars & Stripes.
Going forward shouldn’t be a problem for the Americans, but stopping the opposition from doing so could be. While Adams and McKennie are high-IQ stalwarts in the midfield, the defense is a question mark, especially with the injury doubts over Chris Richards, far and away the team’s most important defender.
Richards is back at practice, so he will be expected to lift a backline that also features Mark McKenzie, a native of The Bronx, and 38-year-old Tim Ream, the captain of the squad.
Matt Freese or Matt Turner will start in goal, and it’s honestly anybody’s guess as to what the right decision is there. Goalkeeping, once a massive strength for Team USA, is a concern going into this tournament.
This is the most talented and deepest roster the United States has ever brought to a World Cup, but the results for this group have been pedestrian in friendlies, so it’s been genuinely hard to get a read on what to expect from them in this tournament.
On the other hand, projecting Paraguay feels pretty straightforward.
You will be hard-pressed to find a side that embraces physicality more than La Albirroja, and center-back Omar Alderete is the perfect encapsulation of that ethos.
Alderete, who plays for Sunderland in the Premier League, will never shy away from a tussle and understands that his role is to make the other team’s best players and strikers think twice about getting into the mixer.
Paraguay’s physical defense is its hallmark, but there is some attacking flair in this group, even if their talisman, Julio “La Joya” Enciso, is injured.
With Enciso doubtful, the onus of the attack will rest on Brighton’s Diego Gomez and former Newcastle winger Miguel Almiron, two players who can produce a moment of magic to win a game.
Andres Cubas will be deployed in the middle of the park, and don’t let his 5-foot-6 frame fool you, Cubas is a dog on a bone and an expert at winning the ball and springing attacks.
Cubas, Almiron, and Gomez make this unit a real threat on the counter, which should give the Americans some pause about getting too frisky going forward.
Neither side will look at this match as a must-win, because they’ll both fancy their chances to pick up points in their next two group-stage matches, but a loss would be devastating. And given that it is the first game for the Americans, I expect it to be nervy, and could see Pochettino opt to keep things close to the vest. And since both of these sides present a real threat in transition, you’re likely to see a real slog in the middle of the pitch, which should put scoring chances at a premium.
With the Under 2.5 juiced to -166, the bookmakers are telling you to expect a low-scoring affair. That often leads to value on the draw.
And if you want one long-shot punt, Alderete is 40/1 at bet365 to pick up a red card. Not a bad price for a player who lives on the edge.
The Play: Draw (+240, FanDuel) | Miguel Alderete to get a red card (40/1, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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